957 
FXUS64 KLCH 011734
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1234 PM CDT Sun Sep 1 2019

.AVIATION...Little changes to previous TAF package. Best shower 
and thunderstorm activity is expected over Acadiana this afternoon
where increased moisture and less capping will be in place.
Carrying TEMPO groups for SHRA at both ARA and LFT. Otherwise VCTS
will suffice at LCH and will make no mention of precip for either
BPT and AEX. VFR will prevail at all terminals. Current MVFR 
ceilings at ARA and LFT will rise into VFR shortly. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 955 AM CDT Sun Sep 1 2019/ 

UPDATE...
Current forecast is on track as a surge in moisture associated
inverted trough will skirt the south central and southwest
Louisiana bringing scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

Rua

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 512 AM CDT Sun Sep 1 2019/ 

DISCUSSION...
Radar/satellite imagery early this morning showing convection
beginning to increase over the Gulf waters south of SC LA in
association with a WWD moving inverted trof/broad SFC low and
accompanying surge of deeper MSTR. N-S dry air wedge across
Central/SW LA will be shunted WWD, but dry air will remain 
entrenched over N LA and interior SE TX. Isolated/scattered 
diurnally driven convection is expected this afternoon, mainly 
along/SE of a KAEX to KBPT line, with the greatest probs residing 
over SC lA where the best MSTR progged to reside. 

Departure of a shortwave trof over the Mid MS River Valley will 
allow for an EWD expansion of an upper ridge centered over the 
FOUR Corners, which in turn will nudge that dry air over N LA 
farther TWD the south, restricting rain chances MON to the LA 
parishes along/S of I-10 and the Gulf waters, and to just the 
latter by TUE.

Temperatures in the mid 90s are expected across interior E TX and
Central LA the next couple of days, with some upper 90s starting
to show up on TUE as the ridge flexes EWD. Readings along the
coast will be in the lower 90s the next couple of days with the
increase in CLDS/PCPN, but mid 90s are expected by TUE.

In the WED to SAT period, global models have trended drier with
the ridge progged to remain largely in control. Warm/hot and
rain-free weather is expected. 

13

MARINE...
Light to modest east to northeast winds will prevail the next few
days as a broad area of low pressure tracks west across the
central and southern Gulf of Mexico. An increasing chance of 
showers and thunderstorms will accompany this low pressure system.
Winds will subside and become more variable toward the middle of 
the week, with rain chances also declining as high pressure 
settles into the region.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  94  72  95  73 /  10  10  10   0 
LCH  93  76  94  76 /  20  20  10  10 
LFT  92  74  93  75 /  40  20  20  10 
BPT  92  76  93  77 /  10  20  10  10 

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION...23