392 FXUS63 KBIS 011412 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 912 AM CDT Sun Sep 1 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 911 AM CDT Sun Sep 1 2019 Still widespread fog in southwest North Dakota, with a low stratus deck across much of the central part of the state. Expecting both of these to lift within the next few hours, leading to a rather nice day before the chance of showers and thunderstorms returns this evening. No major updates to the forecast at this time. UPDATE Issued at 612 AM CDT Sun Sep 1 2019 Only minor adjustments were made to the forecast this morning to better line up with near-term trends. Expanded fog/cloud cover a bit in time and area for this morning. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 316 AM CDT Sun Sep 1 2019 Moisture continues to stream northward and pool ahead of a weak surface trough currently located across far northwest North Dakota. This is leading to widespread low stratus and fog across much of southern and central North Dakota. The trough will swing through and winds shift by mid morning which should clear out the stratus and fog. Upslope flow will once again be present over the area by this evening as the deeper upper level low and associated lee trough develop and push into the area. Showers and thunderstorms may develop later this evening across western North Dakota as a warm front advances northeastward. Initial storms should be elevated but could still produce some hail and gusty winds with ample shear present over the area. The main thunderstorm show and potential severe weather is expected later on Monday. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 316 AM CDT Sun Sep 1 2019 As the mid-level wave approaches and low-level cyclogenesis commences warm, moist advection will kick into high gear Monday. General consensus is that elevated storms will be ongoing across western North Dakota during the first half of the day Monday. A warm front should stretch from northern North Dakota southeastward to northern Wisconsin. This will be the main focus for storm development throughout the day. Models are fairly consistent in developing scattered to widespread storms Monday late afternoon/evening along an axis from northeastern North Dakota southeastward along the eastern edge of a stout EML. The bulk of the storms should be elevated, but the threat for severe storms still exists as steep lapse rates aloft could result in a risk of hail. A surface-based storm or two evolving within this activity may attain a greater tornadic and damaging wind threat given supercellular shear profiles and moderate to strong instability. Another uncertainty regarding the severe-weather scenario is the strength/warmth of the EML and associated mid-level inhibition across the open warm sector. A strongly sheared, strongly unstable environment supporting supercellular development, very large hail, and a few tornadoes will be present Monday afternoon/evening, but the question is whether or not the cap will prevent surface-based storms from developing and tapping into that extreme environment. Dry and cooler conditions are expected on Tuesday behind the exiting northern stream wave, then another wave tracks through the mean ridge bring small shower/thunderstorm chances Wedneday through Friday. Temperatures remain cool. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning) Issued at 612 AM CDT Sun Sep 1 2019 MVFR/IFR in stratus and fog across southwest and central North Dakota this morning. Conditions will improve later this morning. Showers and thunderstorms will enter western North Dakota after 00z Sunday evening and spread north and east through the night. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MJ SHORT TERM...AJ LONG TERM...AJ AVIATION...AJ