585 FXUS63 KILX 010213 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 913 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 300 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2019 Scattered showers or sprinkles will affect mainly the northern half of central Illinois tonight, primarily north of I-72. Skies will remain cloudy, as low temperatures drop into the lower to middle 60s. Patchy fog will be possible later tonight. While an isolated thunderstorm can not be ruled out this evening, no severe storms are expected. Shower chances will linger on Sunday, mainly east of I-55, as high temperatures climb into the upper 70s to lower 80s. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2019 The warm front positioned south of central Illinois is making very slow progress back to the north, which was previously advertised in the high res guidance. It has instead remained nearly stationary along I-64. North of the front, scattered showers or sprinkles have bubbled up from time to time, with no concentrated focus for precip evident in the satellite or radar images. Have therefore covered the evening portion of the forecast with a broad brush of slight chance PoPs for showers. An isolated thunderstorm could develop late this afternoon and early this evening, but instability has not increased under the veil of clouds across the area. So any storms would be short lived. After midnight tonight, an upper level trough will progress into Illinois, bringing a wave of positive vorticity advection, and forcing for precip. The affects of the that trough and shortwave will continue Sunday morning, and linger east of I-55 in the afternoon. The precipitation should remain scattered in general, with rainfall amounts remaining less than a quarter inch from tonight through Sunday afternoon. Despite the cloud cover, high temps are still expected to rise into the upper 70s to lower 80s. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday) ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2019 Dry conditions are expected to begin Sunday night, and continue into Tuesday as high pressure settles in across the area. Upper level ridging will support a noticeable warm-up Labor Day into Tuesday. Highs on Monday should reach to near or just above normal in the mid 80s, with Tuesdays highs potentially reach the upper 80s to around 90. Humidity levels will become uncomfortable as well, especially on Tuesday, as southerly winds boost surface dewpoints into the lower 70s. Heat index readings on Tuesday afternoon will climb toward the middle to upper 90s in some locations. A cold frontal passage late Tuesday afternoon and evening will bring an airmass change, along with some scattered showers and storms, primarily Tuesday evening. The precip chances will be more confined to the NE half of central Illinois, generally NE of Peoria to Lincoln to Mattoon. The front will be relatively moisture starved, so rainfall production will be on the light side from any showers that do develop. Cooler and drier air will settle into the area for Wednesday and Thursday, as high temps return back down into the 70s. Thursday looks to be the cooler of the two days with most areas topping out in the mid 70s. Rain looks to hold off the rest of the week through Saturday, with the storm track remaining north of our area. A slight warmup on Friday toward 80 will be short-lived, as highs Saturday pull back into the low to mid 70s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 913 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2019 Very light precip is moving across the CWA this evening and will continue to do so during the overnight hours as well. Will keep pops low given how light it is. Based on HRRR hires model, could be most light precip from late tonight through early tomorrow morning. Looks like all precip will be showers or sprinkles and not expecting any storms. Will be making these adjustments and sending new forecast shortly. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Shimon SHORT TERM...Shimon LONG TERM...Shimon AVIATION...Auten