786 FXUS61 KBGM 310724 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 324 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure starts the weekend with dry weather. However, an active pattern will take shape starting later Sunday through the first half of next week, with a stationary boundary overhead and several waves passing through. This will cause on-and-off chances for showers and thunderstorms, though Tuesday itself looks mainly dry. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... 315 AM update... Dry and cool Canadian high pressure will overspread the region today, and then only gradually lets go on Sunday with showers slowly encroaching the area from southwest to northeast. Some high cirrus clouds are skimming by the area, but with a dry atmosphere a good amount of radiational cooling is still occurring. Shallow patchy fog can also be found in some valleys. This will burn off fairly quickly after dawn, as low dewpoints mix down to upper 40s-lower 50s today. High thin clouds will continue to pass though the area at times but an overall mostly sunny day can be expected, with high temperatures in the lower- mid 70s from the Twin Tiers northward, and mid-upper 70s to the south. Highest elevations in Central New York may not get out the 60s. Though high pressure will extend a dry surface ridge through the region tonight into early Sunday, there will be deep west- southwest flow aloft with increasing moisture. Clouds will thus thicken overnight into Sunday. That said, models have trended quite a bit slower for the onset of showers because of the amount of dry air in the low levels, feeding in around the dry high centered over New England. Showers will eventually arrive from southwest to northeast, but many locations will get away with a decent chunk of additional dry weather for much of Sunday despite the overcast. Small amounts of instability aloft will encroach from the southwest for an eventual slight chance of thunder to accompany showers from the Central Southern Tier to parts of Northeast PA late Sunday. Better chances will be en route. Though there will be warm air advection aloft, the thickening clouds and eventual showers will hold temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s for highs. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Rain becomes most likely Sunday evening through late Monday morning. A couple hundred J/KG of elevated instability and around 20-35kts of bulk shear will help to increase chances for thunder overnight ahead of the cold front. Chances for showers and storms continue throughout the day Monday, largely tapering off from west to east during the late afternoon and evening hours. However, will not rule out a lingering shower overnight as the trough swings through. Otherwise, as for temperatures, look for highs only in the low to mid 70s under cloudy skies, with lows generally in the 60s Sunday night. Temperatures peak a couple degrees warmer Monday afternoon as warm air continues to advect into the area ahead of the front. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Surface ridging will help to bring about dry and sunny conditions for most of Tuesday, with morning temperatures in the 50s peaking in the upper 70s to low 80s owing to more sunshine and additional warm air working in ahead of the next system. A strong low pressure system moving into eastern Canada will drag cold front through the area late Wednesday morning through the afternoon. This will touch off showers late Tuesday night, with better chances for showers and storms later Wednesday morning through the early afternoon thanks to decent amount of MLCAPE and quite a bit of bulk shear. High pressure builds in again for Thursday, which will give us our best chances for a dry day before more moisture works in and brings additional chances for showers to end the work week. Temperatures during the extended period start off warmer for Tuesday and Wednesday, peaking generally in the mid/upper 70s across central NY and the upper 70s and low 80s across the Catskills and NE PA. Turning much cooler for Thursday and Friday, with morning lows in the 50s and upper 40s and highs in the upper 60s and low 70s. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Dry high pressure will provide VFR through the current TAF period, except for valley fog at KELM early this morning. Air mass is very dry so it may take awhile to set in, but bouncing visibility is expected after 08Z followed by near airport minimum conditions 10Z-12Z, then scattering out/lifting by 13Z. Winds mostly light and variable early this morning, becoming northwest 4-8 knots late morning through afternoon before slackening light north to variable in the evening. Outlook... Late Saturday night through Sunday morning...VFR. Sunday afternoon through Monday...Showers becoming likely with associated restrictions; slight chance of thunder at times. Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Late Tuesday night through Wednesday...Frontal system brings chance of showers and thunderstorms with restrictions. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MDP NEAR TERM...MDP SHORT TERM...HLC LONG TERM...HLC AVIATION...MDP