995 FXUS65 KABQ 310550 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1150 PM MDT Fri Aug 30 2019 .AVIATION... 06Z TAF CYCLE Upper high center to drift to the Four Corners region next 24 hrs. Isold tstms over ern and south central NM at 05Z will continue to move south, and slowly diminish through 08Z. Aft 18Z storms to develop along the central mt chain and over the southwest mts, then drift to the south and southwest. VFR conditions prevail except in vicinity of convection. && .PREV DISCUSSION...330 PM MDT Fri Aug 30 2019... .SYNOPSIS... High pressure aloft anchored well west of New Mexico will shift eastward to the Four Corners region on Saturday. The upper level high will then meander over southern Colorado or northern New Mexico much of next week. Moisture levels or fuel for thunderstorms will briefly trend upward to near seasonal levels this holiday weekend resulting in an uptick in shower and thunderstorm coverage as compared to recent days. Storm chances will then gradually dwindle beginning Tuesday. Daytime highs will average 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal average. && .DISCUSSION... Surface boundary stretching from near Raton/east slopes of the northern Sangre de Cristos southeastward to south of Clayton should become an increasingly important player remainder of the afternoon into the evening. Currently, MLCAPE values generally in the 1000-1500 J/kg range along/north of this boundary within a respectable low level upslope regime. Modest mid- to upper-level NW flow aloft topping this low level upslope resulting in 20-25 knots of 0-6km bulk shear. This environment will be sufficient to support organized storms/isolated severe into the evening. High-res model suite to include latest HRRR suggests broken line segments working across the northeast and east- central plains into the early/mid evening with even the potential for storms reaching Roswell area after midnight. A later shift may need to update/freshen PoP across our southeast zones. Beyond tonight, high pressure aloft centered over southeast CA/southwest AZ will shift eastward and build back over the Four Corners through Saturday. Upper level ridge axis will then meander over southern CO/northern NM much of next week. Precipitable water values forecast to briefly trend upward and closer to seasonable levels next 24-48 hours as the Four Corners High reestablishes before trending back down to below average Tuesday and beyond. As a result, will continue to show an uptick in shower and thunderstorm coverage through the weekend especially for Sunday with a low grade thunderstorm forecast thereafter. Steering flow will become increasingly unfavorable for the east with the focus shifting back to the mountain and west during the extended for meager, daily storm crops. Another backdoor front next Wed/Thu, perhaps. KJ && .FIRE WEATHER... Northwest and portions of north central New Mexico will remain hot, dry and unstable the next couple of days as the upper high moves from over southern California to near the Four Corners. More above normal temperatures with a few near-record highs are forecast. Sufficient moisture will remain in place across roughly the southeast half of the area for more wetting storms through the weekend, though coverage will be limited with a fairly small wetting footprint. The upper high will then hold on over southern Colorado and northern New Mexico through at least mid week with limited coverage of wetting storms and above to well above normal temperatures persisting. A backdoor front will invade the area late Tuesday and will replenish moisture for improved humidity leading to a potentially more active day Wednesday, mainly over northern portions of the area. 12Z medium range model solutions differ thereafter with the position and strength of the upper high, with the ECMWF holding on to an anomalously strong 500mb high center directly overhead through Friday. 11 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$