172 FXUS63 KFGF 301843 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 143 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 137 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019 Strong consensus for shower development with mid level impulse "riding over" the top of baroclinic zone in our south. Increase PoPs through Saturday to account for this model trend. UPDATE Issued at 1012 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019 Minor adjustments to near term trends, otherwise forecast is on track in short term. Still expect increasing clouds later tonight with showers possible late tonight/early morning mainly south. UPDATE Issued at 647 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019 Temps ranging from mid and upper 40s in the southern valley to upper 30s in pockets of NW MN this morning as surface high pressure has brought mostly clear skies to the area. A quick warm up is expected as late August sunshine will be abundant this morning. No changes needed to the forecast. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 337 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019 Concerns in the short term will revolve around temperatures and slight shower chances tonight into Saturday. SFC high pressure will gradually move across the area today bringing light winds for a change. As the surface high pressure slides to the east return flow will bring weak warm advection and slight chance for convection late tonight into Saturday morning in the southern valley as a weak 700mb wave moves through the WNW flow. Saturday will see temps a bit higher with stronger southerly flow and a few showers possible as a developing warm front lifts north across the international border. No thunder mention as HREF thunder probabilities all less than 10 percent and moisture return will be limited. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 337 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019 Saturday Night through Monday Night For Labor Day weekend, guidance is suggesting chances of showers and thunderstorms returning with the best chances in the afternoon and evening on Labor Day. For Saturday night into Sunday, temperatures look to be near normal with ample heating and forcing in place for at least isolated chances of showers and thunderstorms. The GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian-NH are all in agreement with areas near the international border favored for development due to a small upper- level shortwave. There is not widespread development expected, but rain chances for Sunday will be best near the international border. As focus shifts towards Labor Day, there are multiple signs of more widespread rain and thunderstorms possible. A frontal boundary will push through the area associated with a low pressure system to the east. A theta-E gradient draped across the area will help provide forcing. With PWAT values expected to be in the top 10th percentile for this time period, there is the possibility of total rainfall amounts being 0.5 inches to 1 inch. However, there is still a lot of uncertainty of how convective the day will be. The current guidance suggests an environment with moderate CAPE and high shear values. There is the possibility of some storms being strong to severe as it is seen right now, but more confidence in the storm mode will come as we move towards the period. The main question right now will be if the shear values are too high for updrafts to be sustained. Tuesday through Friday For the day on Tuesday, activity will be pushing into Minnesota and further east. North to northwest winds will dominate with 500mb heights being 5 to 10 dam below average. With these conditions, temperatures will be much cooler with highs in the 60s across the whole area. Widespread lows in the 40s are currently anticipated for Tuesday night, but clearing and light winds may allow some to drop into the upper 30s. Precip chances return on Wednesday with disagreement in the guidance. The GFS and Canadian-NH both show more stable northwest flow aloft with the ECMWF indicating a somewhat significant shortwave. Temperatures will remain cool with highs generally in the 60s and lows in the 40s. For Thursday, slight ridging with embedded waves may allow for a slight warm up with isolated rain chances. Friday looks to be nearly the same. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) Issued at 137 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019 VFR conditions should prevail, with west winds generally 7-11 kt (occasional gusts around 15kt) this afternoon. Winds become light and variable tonight, and after midnight a large area of showers will track south of Highway 200 across southeast ND and west central MN through Saturday morning and may impact KFAR. Held off on introducing VCSH at this time, but may be considered once we see upstream trends. MVFR conditions may occur with some showers, but this too is uncertain at this point. Lowest cloud bases associated with CU will be near 5000 FT AGL. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...DJR SHORT TERM...JK LONG TERM...Wasilewski AVIATION...DJR