319 FXUS61 KBTV 301443 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1043 AM EDT Fri Aug 30 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move across the North Country today. Isolated to scattered showers are expected ahead of the front this morning through early afternoon before moving east out of the area. High pressure begins to move in the from the west tonight and will influence our weather for part of the holiday weekend. Dry weather is expected Saturday and Sunday with high temperatures at or slightly below seasonal normals. A surge of moisture moves up into the region with showers becoming fairly widespread Sunday night into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 1038 AM EDT Friday...Frontal boundary with a line of associated showers is zipping right along through the forecast area this morning. Adjusted the PoP forecast with the front pushing through even faster than originally anticipated. The line of light showers is currently entering eastern Vermont and will clear the forecast area shortly after noon. This afternoon will be dry and very pleasant overall with satellite imagery showing many breaks in the cloudcover heading our way. Dealing with some gusty southerly winds in the vicinity of the front, but these winds will decrease this afternoon as high pressure begins to build in from the west. Previous Discussion... Current radar shows isolated to scattered showers moving northeast into the Saint Lawrence Valley early this morning. The showers are associated with a cold front that will be moving quickly eastward across the area today. The front will be exiting the area by early afternoon. As a result...expect the showers across northern New York just through the morning hours and across Vermont during the late morning and early afternoon hours. Amounts will generally be less than a tenth of an inch. Any clouds will be with the narrow band of showers so some sunshine is expected before and after the front moves through. Thus looking at highs in the 70s. South to southwest winds will be increasing ahead of the front before becoming more westerly with the passage of the front. High pressure gradually builds into the region tonight and Saturday. Cooler and drier weather is expected as 925 millibar temperatures on Saturday support highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Lows tonight will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s with readings in the lower to mid 40s across portions of the northern Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom of Vermont. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 458 AM EDT Friday...Most of Saturday night and Sunday will remain dry as ridge of surface high pressure slowly slides east of the region. Saturday night should be an ideal radiational cooling set up with ridge overhead and temperatures will drop into the 40s and lower 50s areawide, some higher 30s in the coldest spots. Will have increasing clouds on Sunday and a chance for showers late in the day beginning in the southwest and spreading northeastward ahead of a shortwave trough which approaches from the Great Lakes area. Temperatures on Sunday should warm into the lower to mid 70s, cooler in areas where showers move in late in the day. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 458 AM EDT Friday...Widespread rain showers spread across the area Sunday night into early Monday. Bulk of precipitation will be between 06-18z Monday. Models are in good agreement with timing of surface trough and potent upper level shortwave moving overhead during that timeframe. Will take a bit for showers to wind down as upper level troughiness remains over the area until early Tuesday morning. Another more organized surface low, associated frontal system and deep upper level trough move across the area during the Tuesday night into Wednesday timeframe bringing the next widespread rain shower event to our region, mainly during the daytime hours on Wed but beginning in the predawn hours in the Northern New York zones. Strong pressure gradient ahead of the surface cold front on Wed will mean gusty winds for Tuesday afternoon and overnight, still looks like potential for low end wind advisory in the St Lawrence valley and will have to evaluate potential in the Champlain valley as well. Models are now showing cold frontal passage during the daytime hours on Monday, and isolated thunderstorms will be possible with the fropa. Another large ridge of surface high pressure will then be over the area from Wednesday night through Friday and we'll have a return to drier weather. && .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 12Z Saturday...Band of showers moving across northern New York at the moment will eventually get into Vermont later this morning and exit the area by mid afternoon. There may be a brief period of MVFR ceilings and visibilities with the showers. Otherwise expecting VFR conditions through the period as little in the way of cloud cover exists behind the front. Southerly winds will gust 15 to 25 knots ahead of the front...then become westerly this afternoon behind the front with gusts in the 10 to 20 knot range through 00z before winds taper off. Outlook... Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA. Labor Day: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Tuesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Slight chance SHRA. && .MARINE... A lake wind advisory is in effect through the morning hours as winds will be from the south at 15 to 25 knots. This will create rather choppy conditions...especially over the northern third of the lake where waves will be in the 2 to 4 foot range. Winds will shift to the west this afternoon and wind speeds will lower into the 10 to 20 knot range. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...Duell/Evenson SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...Neiles AVIATION...Evenson MARINE...Evenson