838 
FXUS63 KILX 292346
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
646 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 254 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2019

A cold front pushing across the area will bring chances of showers
and thunderstorms from late this afternoon through tonight. Some 
gusty winds and small hail will be possible with the more mature 
storms. Coverage of rain should be more scattered in nature, and 
not widespread.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2019

The main concern in the short term is the potential for severe
storms this evening. The cloud shield from the complex of storms
to our west this morning and early afternoon has limited the
development of much in the way of surface based instability.
MUCAPEs are even quite limited across Illinois at this point. We
are running out of time to destabilize enough for much of a threat
for severe storms. We do remain in the SPC slight risk for our NW
counties, so some level of threat is still being considered. The
cold front is expected to arrive in our NW counties between 02z-
03z, then progress southward overnight into Friday. The consensus
of the CAMs is for very limited development north of I-72 this
evening, with an axis of showers and storms along and just south
of I-72 later this evening and after midnight. The NAMnest is an
outlier of a well defined squall line developing in our N counties
and pushing south through our counties. The overall theme still
is pointing toward the best development to our west, in Missouri,
as a squall line develop and progresses south through that area.
Have pulled back on PoPs for this evening and tonight, as well as
Friday for the most part. The front is projected to activate
across our southern counties later Friday afternoon, so continued
with that trend for now.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2019

The stalled cold front looks to be positioned across or near our
southern counties for Friday night. That will provide the 
potential of scattered showers and isolated storms during that 
time, mainly in the southern half of the CWA. 

Then the threat of showers/storms will expand to include the
western half of central IL, as a 500 mb vort max arrives ahead of
an upper level trough. The track of that shortwave will focus
precip chances mainly north of I-72 on Saturday and north of I-70
Saturday night. The upper trough axis will begin to exit Illinois
on Sunday, taking the rain chances with it. By Sunday afternoon,
skies should begin clearing west of I-55, while a few showers
linger east of I-57.

Labor Day through Thursday are looking primarily dry, despite the
GFS indicating a few showers across central IL on Labor Day. The
ECMWF and Canadian keep any precip north or west of our forecast
area. A brief warm-up is still on tap for Tuesday, our warmest day
of the next 7 days. Highs will climb into the middle to possibly
upper 80s. Monday and Wednesday will be seasonably warm as well,
with cooler conditions returning for Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 646 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2019

Precip is remaining over MO and do not see it getting here this
evening...so have removed all mention of precip from new TAFs.
Might be some precip overnight, but most HiRes models not showing
any precip so going with dry for now and will update later if see
it moving in. Clouds are increasing, mostly from blow off from
storms over MO, but seeing some SC/CU development under the cirrus
shield. Think clouds will be scattered for most part this evening,
but mid clouds will begin to advect into the area as well...later
tonight and through tomorrow. Southwest winds expected this
evening but as front moves through winds will switch to north
overnight. Winds tomorrow will be northeast.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Shimon
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Auten