316 FXUS65 KABQ 292107 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 307 PM MDT Thu Aug 29 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Storms today will again focus over the southwestern and south- central mountains with isolated strong storms over far northeastern New Mexico. Some storms over the continental divide near along I-40 will be more dry than wet. Far northeastern New Mexico will see a dip in temperatures Friday with an increased chance for afternoon storms moving southeast off the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. It is possible for one of these storms to become severe as it moves toward Texas. Meanwhile, hot and dry conditions with highs in the upper 90s will continue at Farmington and near the Four Corners through Saturday. By Sunday, moisture will progress westward into central and western New Mexico. This will shift the focus for afternoon storms to the central mountains westward with little to no storm chances across the eastern plains. This looks to continue into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Tonight...Scattered thunderstorm activity across the west will continue through the afternoon, tapering off through the evening. Storms over the divide closer to I-40 and north will be more dry than wet producing gusty outflow winds. Storms over the Gila will be a bit slower being closer to the center of the upper high over AZ, and have more moisture to produce locally heavy rainfall. Meanwhile, a few isolated strong storms have developed over the northeastern plains along a moisture gradient. The northeastern plains storms will be strong as they move southeast toward the OK/TX Panhandles this evening. There is no marginal risk as these storms are chasing higher instability to the east, so there is only a very low chance they could become severe today. Tomorrow...A backdoor cold front continues to be advertised for northeastern NM Friday morning. There is high confidence for lower daytime highs and higher moisture. However, confidence wavers with just how far into northeastern NM this backdoor front will progress. A further progression into the state would support the risk for a few storms developing over the Northeast Highlands and Raton Mesa to become severe over the northeastern plains Friday afternoon, which is being shown by some models. The GFS however is not as bullish with progressing this front as far into northeast, thus it advertises lower instability. All models show storms chasing the axis of instability, however strong it may be. Given the uncertainty at this time, decided to only include mention of strong storms over the northeastern plains and will let the overnight crew take another look at the possibility for inclusion of severe storms. Meanwhile, highs will remain well above normal elsewhere across NM with storms mostly focused over the southwestern and south-central mountains. Weekend...There remains good model agreement for the upper high to migrate toward the Four Corners Saturday with a better influx of moisture working to the central mountain chain. This will support afternoon thunderstorm activity along the central mountain chain and southwestern mountains Saturday. Storm motions will be quicker from north-to-south. As the upper high progresses into southern CO Sunday, a stronger east-to-west flow will develop over NM pushing low-level moisture into western NM. This will shift thunderstorm focus to the central mountain chain westward. The eastern plains will essentially be shut down for thunderstorm activity. This pattern continues Monday with a significant dry tongue at the mid to upper levels moving south of the high over NM. Thunderstorm coverage as a result trends down into early next week. The upper high is still being shown to move east over the Great Plains sometime Tue/Wed with a classic monsoon burst staying well west of NM. 24/RJH && .FIRE WEATHER... With the drier air that has worked its way into northern portions of the state, the biggest fire weather concern through the evening will be the possibility of isolated dry thunderstorms over west central NM. This drier air has also limited activity in northeast NM, but isolated storms will still be possible across the far northeastern corner of the state with better coverage south and west. Despite minimum RH values in the teens across much of central and western NM today and tomorrow, light wind speeds will help prevent critical fire weather conditions. A backdoor cold front will move into northeastern NM late Friday, gradually replenishing low level moisture south and west through the weekend. The upper high rebuilds over the Four Corners region early this weekend, and chances for wetting precipitation will be on the rise. Storms will favor eastern NM as well as the southwest mountains Friday and Saturday, and as the upper high moves eastward through southern CO this weekend, precipitation chances will gradually shift further west. How far east the high will go is still up for debate, and confidence is low into the next week as to how much moisture can seep into the state. 15 && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE Main aviation concern through this TAF period will be isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly over portions of western and southern NM. Isolated storms will also be possible across far northeast NM. Activity is expected to form early this afternoon before diminishing after sunset and will tend to favor the higher terrain. Breezy afternoon winds are also likely this afternoon across the area, and winds could become gusty and erratic in and near any thunderstorm. 15 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 58 96 55 97 / 5 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 46 90 47 92 / 5 5 0 0 Cuba............................ 57 89 55 90 / 5 0 0 10 Gallup.......................... 55 92 50 93 / 10 5 0 5 El Morro........................ 52 87 47 89 / 20 10 5 5 Grants.......................... 52 90 51 91 / 20 5 5 5 Quemado......................... 57 87 56 88 / 30 20 10 20 Datil........................... 57 84 56 86 / 30 20 10 20 Glenwood........................ 65 92 63 95 / 30 40 20 40 Chama........................... 47 81 47 85 / 5 10 10 10 Los Alamos...................... 60 85 62 86 / 10 10 5 20 Pecos........................... 59 86 58 85 / 5 10 20 40 Cerro/Questa.................... 52 81 51 83 / 5 20 20 30 Red River....................... 46 72 47 74 / 5 30 20 40 Angel Fire...................... 36 78 35 77 / 10 30 20 50 Taos............................ 49 87 50 87 / 5 10 10 20 Mora............................ 50 83 52 82 / 5 30 20 50 Espanola........................ 57 92 58 93 / 5 5 5 10 Santa Fe........................ 60 86 62 86 / 5 5 10 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 58 90 58 90 / 5 5 10 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 66 93 66 94 / 5 5 5 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 65 94 67 94 / 5 0 5 10 Albuquerque Valley.............. 63 97 62 97 / 5 0 5 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 65 95 66 96 / 5 0 0 5 Los Lunas....................... 60 95 57 96 / 10 0 5 5 Rio Rancho...................... 65 94 66 96 / 5 0 0 5 Socorro......................... 65 97 65 97 / 10 10 10 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 62 88 59 86 / 5 5 5 20 Tijeras......................... 62 91 62 89 / 5 5 10 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 53 92 53 91 / 5 5 10 20 Clines Corners.................. 58 89 57 87 / 5 5 10 30 Gran Quivira.................... 59 89 60 88 / 10 20 10 30 Carrizozo....................... 64 92 64 89 / 10 30 20 50 Ruidoso......................... 58 83 55 80 / 20 60 20 70 Capulin......................... 54 83 55 83 / 10 50 40 50 Raton........................... 53 88 52 88 / 5 40 40 50 Springer........................ 53 89 53 88 / 5 30 30 50 Las Vegas....................... 52 86 54 85 / 5 20 20 40 Clayton......................... 60 86 60 88 / 20 20 40 20 Roy............................. 58 88 59 86 / 10 30 30 30 Conchas......................... 64 95 64 94 / 10 20 30 20 Santa Rosa...................... 65 96 64 94 / 5 20 20 20 Tucumcari....................... 67 97 64 94 / 10 20 30 20 Clovis.......................... 65 94 64 91 / 10 10 30 20 Portales........................ 66 95 65 93 / 10 10 30 20 Fort Sumner..................... 66 94 65 92 / 5 10 20 20 Roswell......................... 70 100 70 96 / 5 10 20 20 Picacho......................... 64 91 63 89 / 10 40 20 30 Elk............................. 61 88 59 86 / 20 50 20 50 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 24