732 FXUS61 KCLE 291658 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 1258 PM EDT Thu Aug 29 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure weakens as it passes to our south today. A weak cold front approaches from the northwest this evening before crossing northern OH and northwest PA Friday morning. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will accompany this front. High pressure temporarily builds in before a series of weak disturbances brings along precipitation chances Saturday night through Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... 1 pm update...Removed all chances of precipitation until late tonight/early Friday morning. The best chance will be generally along and near Lake Erie. A rumble of thunder will also be possible...however confidence is low. Otherwise...current forecast looks on track. Temperatures are currently in the low to mid 70s with little patches of cu across the region. .Previous discussion...The surface high pressure currently located over the Tennessee Valley will continue to slowly work its way east towards the Mid-Atlantic before diminishing Friday afternoon. With this high pressure to our south and low pressure over northern Ontario, there is still a decent pressure gradient over our forecast area, resulting in some gusty southwest winds up to 20 to 25 knots. Meanwhile, a line of convection is expected to develop along a cold front from mid- Ontario to southern Iowa later this afternoon. The convection is expected to move southeast towards Northern Ohio late tonight, impacting Lake Erie and Northwestern Ohio by 06Z Friday. Most models have this line of convection weakening as it approaches our forecast area with instability ahead of the convection diminishing through the night. Only scattered showers with an isolated chance of thunder is expected. However, there are a few models that hold onto higher instability of up to 2000 J/kg, which would be coupled with deep layer shear of up to 40 knots. If this is the case, then storms certainly will be need to monitored. Model trends will have to be closely monitored to see if there is a hint of higher instability lingering longer than initial projections. Some redevelop of scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm is possible Friday afternoon as the cold front moves through central Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania. Seasonably normal temperatures are expected through Friday. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A large area of high pressure will build south and east across the Great Lakes Region from Friday night through Saturday night. As the high shifts east, we will begin to see some moisture return by Saturday night and have low chance pops expanding to all areas by Sunday as shortwave energy moves through the Ohio Valley and kicks off a few showers. Temperatures will be just slightly below normal across eastern portions of the area while other areas experience a seasonal weekend. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A weak frontal boundary will settle south across the area on Monday and have added a low chance of showers and thunderstorms, shifting to just the southeastern counties during the afternoon. High pressure expands again as this front dissipates on Tuesday, followed by yet another weak back door cold front Tuesday night into Wednesday. Temperatures trend warmer by Tuesday then drop back down by Wednesday. && .AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/... With high pressure to our high still influencing our weather, VFR conditions are still expected through the TAF period. Winds out of the southwest expected to increase this afternoon with sustained winds around 10 to 15 knots and gusts up to 20 to 25 knots. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms may be moving southeast through northern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania between 06Z and 12Z but chances are low and there is too much uncertainty right now to add to the end of the TAF period. VCSH and/or non-VFR conditions may be added to future TAF updates. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms late Thursday night and Saturday night through Monday. && .MARINE... A Small Craft Advisory and Beach Hazard statement remains in effect from Lake County Ohio to Erie County Pennsylvania as winds and waves remain elevated. Conditions will likely improve by 7 AM allowing these headlines to be cancelled until this evening when southerly winds increase to 15 to 25 knots. Small Craft Advisory has been expanded to include all of Lake Erie tonight when winds will increase to 15 to 25 knots, with a 1 to 2 hour window of winds to 30 knots. Higher waves will be confined to areas near and east of Cleveland tonight as the flow shifts to the west and eventually northwest with the passage of a cold front. Marine conditions will improve through the day on Friday and remain good for most of the weekend as high pressure builds east across the Great Lakes Region. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Beach Hazards Statement through Friday morning for OHZ089. PA...Beach Hazards Statement through Friday morning for PAZ001. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Friday for LEZ148-149. Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Friday for LEZ142>145. Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Friday for LEZ146-147. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Saunders NEAR TERM...Riley/Saunders SHORT TERM...KEC LONG TERM...KEC AVIATION...Saunders MARINE...KEC