882 FXUS61 KRLX 291035 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 635 AM EDT Thu Aug 29 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure through early Friday. Slow warm-up into the weekend. Weak cold front during the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 630 AM Thursday... No major changes to the forecast this morning. As of 240 AM Thursday... High pressure builds, then departs to the east today and tonight respectively. Frontal system drops in from the north, and will get held up by the surface low over the southern high plains and become quasi stationary. The forecast for the region is ultimately dry for the 36 hour period, but the 09-12Z Friday time period for the far northwestern zones in the southeastern Ohio leads to a slightly lower confidence. NAM hints at weak mid level frontogenesis just to the west of Perry County around 12Z which could trigger a small line of showers. GFS follows suit with QPF output in the same area for that same time frame, but again, just west of the area. The models have struggled over the past few days with where the frontal system will stall out, so will not jump on this subtle feature for this issuance. Expect it to be more of a short term forecast issue, and again, just west of the area at 12Z. Another day of temperatures near the 80F mark in the lowlands, not quite as cool overnight as we warm advect at 925mb. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 AM Thursday... Surface high pressure will be positioned southeast of the area on Friday, which will allow the flow to become more southerly. This will support an increase in temperatures Friday afternoon compared to Thursday as many locations reach a few degrees above normal. While the majority of the day will be dry, shortwave energy in the Great Lakes rotating around a deep upper level low over Hudson Bay will push a cold front into the Ohio Valley late afternoon into the evening. This feature may provide just enough lift to support a few isolated showers/storms as the front pushes to the SSE through the day. However, the better upper support will remain north of the region and moisture will be rather limited. Thus, this should keep any precip coverage fairly low so have only slight PoPs in southeast OH and northern WV and decreasing further south as activity should wane with the loss of daytime heating. The front will continue to move slowly southward Friday night into Saturday, eventually stalling in a east to west orientation from central WV into southern OH. As a series of mid level impulses move through the Ohio Valley Saturday afternoon and interact with the frontal boundary in the area, scattered showers and a few storms may develop, especially near the mountains during the day further aided by orographic lift. temperatures on Saturday will be somewhat dependent on the exact placement of the frontal boundary, with temperatures reaching low 80s north of the front and mid 80s south of the front. By Saturday night, the stalled boundary will begin to lift northward as a warm front in response to a shortwave trough pushing into the mid Mississippi Valley. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 315 AM Thursday... As the warm frontal boundary in the short term period continues to push northward into Sunday, temperatures are expected to be a degree or two warmer as highs reach the mid/upper 80s. With the boundary pushing north of the region and the better upper level support to the north, most of the area should be dry on Sunday. However, slight PoPs are in place for northern portions of the FA as some showers and storms can't be completely ruled out, but less of a threat for precip will exist for areas further south. Longwave trough remains in place across the eastern CONUS while a strong H5 ridge remains anchored in the Intermountain West early next week. This will maintain NW flow aloft on Monday with the possibility of showers and storms, mainly across northern areas as shortwave impulses move through the region. Tuesday appears dry at this point with high pressure in control. From there, the remainder of the long term period will be largely dependent on what happens with Hurricane Dorian, which currently is north of Puerto Rico. Latest NHC forecast track has Dorian moving towards Florida by Sunday, and possibly then lifting northward up the coast or just inland across the southeast CONUS. It is way too soon to discuss what impacts (if any) our area will experience from its remnants, but something to monitor in the days ahead. Temperatures are expected to remain above seasonal for much of next week with highs generally a few to 5 degrees above normal. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 630 AM Thursday... Outside of some brief lingering restrictions at HTS this morning, VFR expected today through 06Z Friday. After 06Z Friday, there is potential for EKN to go down to IFR BR, and have that in prevailing. Winds less than 10kts at the surface. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR vis may not occur at EKN. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY L L M M H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY M L L H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M M L H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY L L M H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY L L L M H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z FRIDAY... No widespread IFR expected. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...26/RG NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...RG LONG TERM...RG AVIATION...26