364 FXUS63 KIND 281845 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 245 PM EDT Wed Aug 28 2019 .UPDATE... The LONG TERM Section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 242 AM EDT Wed Aug 28 2019 High pressure will build in from the Plains and bring dry weather to central Indiana through the remainder of the work week. Then a cold front will drop down from the northwest and stall nearby this weekend and into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/... Issued at 930 AM EDT Wed Aug 28 2019 No major changes needed to the forecast other than increasing winds a bit this afternoon with good mixing expected. Highs will climb into the upper 70s with a few spots reaching 80 and clear skies. Relevant portions of previous discussion follows... A trough will move east of the area today and surface high pressure builds in from the Plains with good confidence in little cloud cover save perhaps some afternoon fair weather cu. Whatever cu is around this afternoon will dissipate at sunset with clear skies tonight. Good confidence in below normal temperatures per the blend. Look for afternoon highs in the mid 70s to around 80 today and overnight lows tonight in the mid 50s. && .SHORT TERM /Thursday through Friday night/... Issued at 242 AM EDT Wed Aug 28 2019 The main concern for the short term will be the potential for convection toward Friday as a cold front drops across the area from the northwest. Good confidence that Thursday will be dry with very little cloud cover as high pressure settles over the Ohio Valley. Model time sections were showing only limited low level moisture and cu development progs were suggesting little in the way of diurnal cu potential. Then, model rh time sections were showing just enough moisture along with the front to leave low PoPs northwest Thursday night and low PoPs most of the forecast area on Friday. With low level moisture, solar heating and very dry mid levels, plenty of instability for thunder mention with model and BUFKIT surface based CAPES to near 1000 J/KG. Good confidence that southwest winds ahead of the cold front will allow for temperatures to rebound to near normal. However, exactly when and where the front settles makes temperature forecast a bit more tricky on Friday. && .LONG TERM /Saturday Night Through Wednesday/... Issued at 244 PM EDT Wed Aug 28 2019 The period will begin fairly active with a series of weak upper level waves expected to move through the area. Best chances for precipitation will be on Sunday with some smaller chances into Monday as the wave exits and residual moisture stays behind. Agreed with the highest POPs being in the NW where most models show the wave moving through, so left blended initialization largely alone. The extent and probabilities for thunderstorms will be largely dependent on when the wave moves through with better chances for storms if it moves through during peak heating. Dry conditions are expected afterwards with high pressure building to start the week. Temperatures will generally be near normal with highs in the low to mid 80s and lows in the low to mid 60s through the period. && .AVIATION /Discussion for 28/18Z TAF Issuance/... Issued at 1245 PM EDT Wed Aug 28 2019 VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. High pressure is in place and will remain in place through the later portions of the period with mostly clear skies expected. Winds out of the west of 15 kts with gusts in excess of 25 kts expected through the evening. Winds will weaken to 5-10 kts afterwards. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MK NEAR TERM...MK/White SHORT TERM...MK LONG TERM....White AVIATION...White