419 
FXUS63 KOAX 281735
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1235 PM CDT Wed Aug 28 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Wed Aug 28 2019

At 230 AM, skies were crystal clear under dry northwest flow 
aloft. Surface high pressure was in control from the Black Hills 
south into the Ozarks, with light and variable winds over much of 
Nebraska and Kansas. Given these conditions, radiational cooling 
was doing its thing. This had helped temperatures dip into the 50s
and even upper 40s in northeast Nebraska. Quite fall like out 
there.

A broad upper level trough over the north central U.S. and central 
Canada will allow dry northwest flow aloft to continue over the 
Central Plains today. We should see plenty of sunshine as a 
result. At the surface, high pressure will drift east from the 
High Plains into Missouri over the course of the day. This will 
bring a transition from light westerly winds this morning to 
southerly winds this afternoon. Wind speeds should be lighter than
Tuesday, peaking around 10 mph this afternoon. Height increases 
and warming 850 mb temps should help afternoon highs peak around 
80 degrees. Superb late August weather given the low humidity, 
get out and enjoy it this evening or on that lunch break. 

A shortwave diving southeast through the Dakotas and Minnesota, 
and an intensifying LLJ should bring a few more clouds to the 
region tonight. Limited instability above 850 mb could allow a 
couple showers or an isolated thunderstorm to develop after 
midnight. Any precipitation will be light, with the vast majority
of the area remaining dry. Given the extra cloud cover and 
dewpoints near 60 degrees, overnight lows should bottom out in the
mid 60s.

Warmer and mostly dry Thursday, as the shortwave over the Upper 
Midwest pushes a cold front into eastern Nebraska and Iowa. 
Afternoon highs should range from the low 80s behind the front 
in northeast Nebraska, to the upper 80s ahead of the front in 
southern Nebraska/Iowa. In general it still looks like convection 
along the front will be suppressed by a capping inversion during 
the day, though an isolated storm or two can't be fully ruled out 
in the late afternoon. Confidence in convection holding off until 
after 4 PM is moderate.

Confidence is moderate to high that thunderstorms will increase 
in coverage along and south of Interstate 80 Thursday evening as 
the frontal boundary settles south and the capping inversion 
erodes. Forecast soundings suggest a potential for stronger 
storms (SBCAPE > 2000 j/kg, midlevel lapse rates near 8 C/km and 
around 30 kt of 0 to 6 km shear). The main hazards with any
stronger storms are expected to be damaging winds, hail and 
flooding. The risk for severe weather is highest between 6 PM and
midnight. After midnight, storms should progress south into 
Kansas as the front slides southward.

Increasing rain chances through the day on Friday as another upper
level shortwave moves out of the Central Rockies. Instability 
should be limited Friday behind Thursdays frontal passage. This 
should reduce the thunder potential, and make this mostly a rain 
situation. With the clouds and rain around, high temperatures 
will likely top out in the mid/lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday) 
Issued at 230 AM CDT Wed Aug 28 2019

Rain and isolated thunderstorm should linger through the day on 
Saturday. This will make for a rather dreary and cool day, with 
plenty of clouds, and high temps in the lower 70s. The kind of 
day where you just want to chill on the couch. Rain chances 
decrease Saturday night as the upper level trough axis shifts east
and subsidence takes over. Confidence in the forecast for 
Saturday is moderate. 

Increased upper level ridging remains in play for early next 
week, with all the global models favoring some form of upper level
ridge over the Central/Southern Plains by Tuesday. This should 
generally promote a warming trend and drier weather through 
Tuesday. Confidence in this trend is low to moderate.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed Aug 28 2019

VFR conditions will prevail at all three TAF sites under surface
high pressure. A low-level trough will work through the area
overnight. This will bring some low-level wind shear by 07-08z and
an outside chance for thunderstorms. The primary thunderstorm
chance is east of OFK and north of OMA and for now won't be
included in this TAF issuance.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Albright
LONG TERM...Albright
AVIATION...Pearson