606 
FXUS63 KFGF 272016
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
316 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2019

Primary concerns for the short term will be precip ending and then
temperatures as a less active pattern sets up. Showers will 
gradually end from west to east this evening across eastern North 
Dakota and the Red River valley. With enhanced lift of upper wave
showers will persist into the overnight in NW MN as forcing
slides across northern MN. Wind gusts a few which have been up to
40mph will decrease with sunset and sustained winds will lessen
overnight. 

Will see more sun tomorrow with SFC high pressure sliding across
the central plains and bringing west winds to the area. Gusts will
peak out at around 25mph as efficient mixing occurs tomorrow 
afternoon. High temps will rise into 70s tomorrow with good solar. 

Late tomorrow a short wave will move across southern Canada and
bring slight rain chances along the Northern border areas. 

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2019

Mostly dry, but cool conditions are expected for the remainder of 
August. Despite light and isolated chances of rain during the late 
weekend, the next chance of widespread rain and thunderstorms 
appears to be during the early portions of next week. 

Thursday through Friday...

Medium to long range guidance is in fairly good agreement that 
surface high pressure will build and persist across the northern 
Plains Thursday through late Friday after the passage of a weak cold 
front early Thursday. Despite the dry weather, the colder airmass 
associated with the surface high will keep temperatures running 
roughly 5 degrees below seasonal normals with afternoon highs in the 
low to mid 70s and overnight lows in the low 40s. Locations that 
typically experience slightly cooler overnight lows due to local 
topographical influences may see lows in the upper 30s Thursday 
night/Friday morning. 

Saturday through Sunday...

With a northwest flow regime established aloft, some 
deterministic/ensemble guidance suggests a weak shortwave embedded 
in the mean flow will bring light and isolated rain chances to the 
region late Saturday/Sunday. However, confidence in these rain 
chances is low. More noteworthy is the warming signal for this time 
period as southerly winds advect warm/moist air back into the region 
and bring afternoon highs back into the upper 70s. 

Monday...

This warming trend will continue into Monday with highs forecast in 
the upper 70s and low 80s ahead of an upper level wave and attendant 
surface low. While guidance varies considerably on the timing of 
this feature, a signal in instability and precipitable water 
probabilities suggests the Monday afternoon to Tuesday morning 
period could see our next round of widespread rain and/or 
thunderstorms. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 117 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2019

MVFR CIGs and winds the primary concern this afternoon. Will see
the gusts this afternoon 25 to 30kts possibly a bit higher in the
valley and DVL for short periods. MFVR CIGs will lift to the east
as showers end and BKN 3000 to 5000ft CIGs will occur before SCT 
out this evening and overnight. VFR tomorrow with nw gusting to
around 20kts.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...AM
AVIATION...JK