725 FXAK69 PAFG 271135 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 335 AM AKDT Tue Aug 27 2019 .DISCUSSION... Unsettled weather continues across the North Slope and Brooks Range. An Arctic front stretching across the Arctic Coast early this morning will move south over the Brooks Range today, stalling out, and remaining in place and weakening through Thursday. This will bring precipitation across the North Slope and Brooks Range. An additional quarter inch of rain over the North Slope is possible today and one to two inches of rain over the Brooks Range through Wednesday. Above 4500 feet, precipitation will fall as snow. The rainfall will cause significant rises on all rivers across the North Slope this week. Aloft, a trough extends south from the high Arctic to southeast Alaska with a flattened ridge extending north from the north Pacific, across the Bering Sea to the Bering Strait and across Western Alaska. A weak shortwave will move east across the Western Interior today and over the Eastern Interior tonight into early Wednesday. The low will slide east to southeast Thursday and Friday, amplifying the ridge with the axis stretching from the Chukchi Sea to Kotzebue to Minchumina to Valdez by Friday morning. The longwave trough extending south from the high Arctic will be pushed northeastward, with embedded shortwaves working through the flow across the Arctic Coast and North Slope through the week. Surface... An Arctic front stretches from a 992 mb low 250 nm NW of Banks Island to a 1004 mb low near Barter Island to a 1007 mb low north of Cape Lisburne this morning. The low NW of Banks Island will slide south today to be a 993 mb low 150 nm NW of Banks Island, with the front pushing south and stretching from Franklin Bay southwest to a 1006 mb low 100 nm east of Arctic Village, west across the Brooks Range to a 1011 mb low near Point Hope this afternoon. The Arctic low will continue to weaken as it slides eastward Tuesday night to be a 996 mb low 150 nm N of Banks Island, with the front remaining fairly stationary as it stretches from a weakening 1012 mb low near Arctic Village to a weakening 1014 mb low near Point Hope early Wednesday morning. The front will weaken Wednesday and Thursday over the Brooks Range. High pressure will begin to build in over the North Slope today from a 1028 mb high centered near the East Siberian Sea and persist, as the high center slides southeast through the week. High pressure extends north across the Bering Sea from a 1029 mb high centered south of Nikolski this morning. The high center will weaken through the week, with high pressure building eastward across the Western Interior Wednesday and into the Central Interior Thursday. A 1013 mb low 125 nm southeast of Shemya this morning will move northeast across the Western Bering Sea through tonight to be a 1007 mb low 300 nm southwest of St Matthew Island Wednesday morning. The low will move eastward and deepen to be a 1002 mb low 100 nm northwest of St Paul Island on Thursday. Models...00Z model suite initialized fair against the 00Z RAOBS and surface observations, with models being 10 meters too low on the West Coast and over British Columbia. Models are in good agreement through much of the short term period, with differences in strength and placement of low centers appearing by Friday, especially across Siberia and the Canadian Archipelago. North Slope and Brooks Range: Areas of stratus, fog, and rain persist across the Arctic Coast this morning. A weather front stretched along the coast early this morning will slide south through the day, stalling over the Brooks Range, before weakening Wednesday and Thursday. This front will bring rain to the North Slope and Brooks Range and snow to areas above 4500 feet. An additional quarter inch of rain is expected across the North Slope through today, with the heaviest rain falling between Umiat and Barter Island. In the Brooks Range, an additional one to two inches of rainfall is expected through Wednesday, with the heaviest precip falling east of the Dalton Highway. This rainfall will cause sharp rises in the North Slope Rivers this week. West Coast and Western Interior: Areas of stratus and fog persist across the West Coast this morning, and will likely continue into Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers possible across much of the area through Wednesday, with higher rain chances across the Western Brooks Range. A low and associated weather front moving east across the Bering will bring increased rain chances to St Lawrence Island Wednesday night and Thursday. A tight pressure gradient continues between high pressure extending north over the Bering Sea and the Arctic front resulting in southwest winds of 15 to 30 mph along the coast this morning. The winds will diminish today and tonight. The low moving across the Bering Sea will tighten the gradient south of the Bering Strait Wednesday night and Thursday, especially south of St Lawrence Island. Temperatures warm a degree or two each day through Thursday for the southern West Coast and the Western Interior. Central and Eastern Interior: Isolated to scattered showers today through Wednesday across the Interior as a shortwave moves across, with rainfall amounts generally light. Expect west to southwest winds of 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph to develop today and continue into Wednesday, mostly over higher elevations, as the gradient tightens up. Drier conditions return by Thursday and temperatures warm into the lower to mid 60s across the southern Interior, as high pressure builds in. Coastal Hazard Potential...Southwest winds of 15 to 20 knots over the Bering Sea will cause slightly elevated surf for zones 207, 211, 212, 213, and 214 through Tuesday night. && .FIRE WEATHER... Expect high temperatures in the 50s and 60s through Friday, with min RH values of 30 to 45 percent. The driest and warmest conditions are expected over the southern Interior. West to southwest winds of 5 to 15 mph expected through Wednesday, with gusts to 25 mph in some of the higher terrain in the Interior. && .HYDROLOGY... Another quarter of an inch of rainfall is expected across the North Slope through today, with the heaviest rainfall occurring between Umiat and Barter Island. Across the Brooks Range an additional one to two inches of rainfall is expected through Wednesday, with the heaviest rain falling east of the Dalton Highway. This will cause sharp rises on all North Slope Rivers this week. Interior rivers remain high but will continue to fall slowly this week. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210. && $$ AUG 19