408 
FXUS63 KDMX 262058
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
358 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019

.DISCUSSION.../Tonight through Monday/
Issued at 341 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019

Deep low and upper trough swinging through the Northern Plains
into the Upper Midwest/Central Plains which is driving a cold 
front through the state this evening. The best shear with this
system is diving into Missouri where convection has been occurring
all day. Low cloud cover has led to cooler temps and has not
allowed us to destabilize much. Current radar trends show only
showers along the boundary moving through from Mason City down to
Denison. Should be an uneventful frontal passage, though an
isolated storm may be possible through early evening. Rapid
clearing/drying will occur post frontal so overnight will be clear
and cool with low humidity.

Tuesday the upper trough develops a closed low with a secondary
trough dropping through the region. Some vorticity drops into MN 
and may brush northern Iowa. This will bring some showers to MN 
and WI that may brush far northern Iowa late morning into the 
early afternoon but any precip would be brief and light. 

Dry weather and comfortable temperatures are expected through
Wednesday as we remain in northwest flow. At the surface, high
pressure will drift east and by Thursday we will have some return
flow across the region. Late Wednesday night and Thursday theta-e
advection develops across the state with several waves of it 
lifting across the state. The result would be a chance for showers
and maybe a few storms. At this point there doesn't appear to be
much of a severe threat but this will be better assessed in the
next couple of days. Late Thursday and Thursday night, another
front drops through and clears things out.  

For the weekend, return flow comes back for Friday/Saturday with
additional precip chances for this time period. 

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon/
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019

Low stratus type cloud cover creating widespread IFR conditions over 
the TAF sites.  This should persist through the early evening. A 
cold front will pass through the state this evening clearing the low 
cloud cover.  Showers and isold tsra will develop along the frontal 
boundary during peak heating through FROPA though convection should 
be brief.  VFR conditions will exist from late evening through the 
end of the forecast period.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...FAB
AVIATION...FAB