394 FXUS62 KILM 261354 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 954 AM EDT Mon Aug 26 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will extend south into the Carolinas, while low pressure of tropical origin tracks north well offshore. A cold front will cross the area late Wednesday into Thursday, and may stall nearby next weekend. && .UPDATE... Surface low pressure was located about 340 miles east-southeast of Cape Fear. Latest guidance indicates it will meander in this general area through Tuesday before lifting to the northeast. This will keep the forecast area under the influence of north- northeast surface flow, with high temperatures a few degrees below normal for late August. No significant changes to going forecast this morning. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Quiet weather locally between 2 prominent satellite features, where today, low level stability and a zone of subsidence aloft results in weak thermal updraft fields. Onshore wind today and partial sunshine will bring temperatures into the middle 80s, noticeably warmer than yesterday, as sun makes debut. Tuesday temperatures and dewpoints on a slight climb compared to today, with small amounts of CAPE making return. Tropical moisture offshore will send landward showers onto the Outer Banks, but likely not SE NC and NE SC. Prefrontal, isolated showers may be approaching from the west, mainly light, and diminishing with loss of heat late Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Low pressure or possible tropical depression will track off to the north through Tues night into Wed as next system approaches the Carolinas from the west. A broad mid to upper trough will begin to dig down from the Upper Great Lakes, pushing a cold front through the Carolinas Wed night. Deeper layer moisture will be present as off shore winds back around, with pcp water values up over 2 inches. Shall see instability aloft present Tues night with sfc based CAPE developing on Wed. Therefore have included scattered convection on Wed with mainly diurnal convective activity diminishing Tues evening and falling off overnight, but Wed eve may be more active as cold front moves through, reaching the coast by morning. Max temps on Wed will be near normal with night time lows slightly above normal. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure will build in behind cold front, but this front will stall out south and east. Enough moisture may linger near the coast along with localized convergence from sea breeze to produce aftn convection on Thursday. This boundary should get pushed back north and west Fri into the weekend. Best moisture and chc of convection will be along the coast or over SC while drier high pressure builds into the Carolinas from the north. The high will run east to west north of the area heading into the weekend as it migrates eastward and off the coast of Hatteras over the weekend. This should keep moist on shore return flow around the base of the high and could drag this moisture and lingering boundary back toward our area by the latter half of the weekend as winds come around to the SE, with a greater chc over SC coast or south of area initially. Ridge may build westward enough with time which could help to limit convection. Need to see how these features play out. Temps will run a bit above normal late week and over the weekend. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 12Z...Skies will be predominately VFR through the forecast period. Low pressure offshore will not be a factor as it tracks to the northeast. Expect moderate northeast flow today with a mid and high cloud ceiling. Northeast flow continues overnight with no fog expected. Extended...Mainly VFR. Next frontal system Wed/Thu timeframe may bring additional restrictions. && .MARINE... Northeast gusts in excess of 25 kt warrants continuation of Advisory flags this morning, but by afternoon, wind speeds will be down-trending, and the advisory will likely be allowed to expire. Seas above 7 ft at 41013 will subside to 5 ft this afternoon. Seas comprised of NE waves 4 to 6 ft every 7 seconds and SE waves 2 feet every 8-9 seconds. This regime prevails into Tuesday, but the NE waves will subside several feet. NO TSTMs over the 0-20 NM waters expected, but isolated showers should be seen. Winds will back around and diminish as low pressure, or a possible tropical system, lifts off to the north in the distant off shore waters Tues night into Wed. Should see a weak southerly flow on Wed ahead of a cold front which should make it through the waters early Thurs. Winds will veer around behind front to the N, but will remain light on Thurs. This front may stall out near the waters or just south and then move back toward the waters heading into the weekend. Seas should remain 3 ft or less through much of the period with fairly light winds. With synoptic wind speeds rather negligent to wind driven wave production, the ESE becoming E swell at 7 to 8 second periods will dominate. At the height of the sea breeze, seas near shore will be dominated by wind waves. For Wed thru Fri, seas will depend on how much the tropical entity intensifies and if it stays closer to the coast after passing Cape Hatteras. The back swell from this system could become a factor for the remainder of the week. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for AMZ250-252-254- 256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...CRM NEAR TERM...MCW SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...08 MARINE...08/RGZ