995 
FXUS63 KLBF 251750
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1250 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019

Very low ceilings around Imperial and Ogallala may be the signal for 
advection fog. The RAP model shows some dry air aloft moving in 
before sunrise. Areas of fog are in place along and west of highway 
61 this morning.

The NAMnest is taking a storm or two off the Black Hills this 
afternoon. The RAP model indicates the instability is modest with 
MLCAPE around 2500 J/KG, the shear strong, 40-50kts and the Bulk 
Richardson number low, less than 55 in many areas. This would 
suggest a somewhat isolated severe weather threat. The thunderstorm 
forecast uses the model blend plus the NAM. 

A strong Pacific cold front will move in late tonight and Monday 
morning. Additional strong thunderstorm development is possible ahead 
of the cold front. A dry forecast is in place Monday.  

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019

H700mb temperatures tumble to 3-5C Monday and remain there Tuesday. 
This might be the coolest day of the next 7 with high temperatures 
in the lower 70s and lows in the 40s Wednesday morning. The NAM 
shows a band of shows developing Monday night ahead of a reinforcing 
shot of cold air aloft.

A second strong cold front drops in Friday. The GFS and ECM are 
taking the remnant moisture from Tropical storm Ivo north and then 
east into Nebraska Friday. This could produce significant rainfall 
and the GFS and GEM models indicate precipitable water increasing to 
around 1.25 inches. High temperatures Friday and Saturday are in 
just the upper 60s to lower 70s. Thursday will be the warmest day 
with highs in the 80s. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019

Latest satellite imagery continues to show significant cloud cover
across much of the area this early afternoon. As a result, MVFR
conditions will continue for much of north central Nebraska
through 00z with improving conditions for KLBF over the next few
hours. Meanwhile, VFR conditions will be seen across western
Nebraska through this TAF period. Isolated thunderstorms are
expected to approach KVTN this afternoon, however, confidence
remains low that it will directly impact the site, so mention of
VCSH will remain for now. 

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Thorne