673 FXUS65 KABQ 251720 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1120 AM MDT Sun Aug 25 2019 .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF forecast period. A few afternoon and early evening gusts up to 20-25 knots will be possible excluding KTCC/KROW. DPorter && .PREV DISCUSSION...304 AM MDT Sun Aug 25 2019... .SYNOPSIS... Near record to record heat will be the main weather story today and Monday, especially across for the east-central and southeast plains. Some relief in the form of a cold front from the northeast remains in the forecast for late on Monday across northeast NM with the cooler air pushing westward into the Rio Grande Valley and points west Monday night and Tuesday morning. Moisture will increase behind the cold front, resulting in a return for afternoon and evening shower and thunderstorm chances Wednesday into next weekend. High temperatures will gradually cool off toward average for late August. && .DISCUSSION... Near record to record heat will be the rule areawide through Monday. Issued a heat advisory for the of Chaves County plains for this afternoon as models continue to inch upward with temperatures for much of the forecast area but especially the southeast plains. A backdoor cold front remains on tap for late-day Monday across northeast NM, pushing west and south during the evening and overnight hours. Look for the front to move over Glorieta Pass and through Tijeras Canyon a few hours prior to sunrise Tuesday with east and southeast winds continuing until around noon. Gulf moisture then gradually increases behind the front Tuesday into Tuesday night. Isolated showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms are possible mainly over the southwest and south- central mountains Tuesday afternoon and early evening as a result. Shower and thunderstorm coverage is forecast to increase Wednesday but similar to last night, the GFS seems overdone with precipitation with the ECMWF too dry. Essentially split the difference between the two models given the moisture increase and the fact that several convergence zones will likely help get storms going Wednesday afternoon central and west. Both the GFS and ECWMF indicate that weak vort lobes/short-wave troughs start moving in on the northwest flow aloft east of the Four Corners' high centered over AZ, helping to trigger at least scattered afternoon and evening convection over much of the forecast area Thursday through at least next weekend. High temperatures will trend down through the latter half of the work week and particularly after another backdoor frontal passage Saturday. 33 && .FIRE WEATHER... The warming and drying trend will plateau today into Monday, with well above normal temperatures forecast and some record and near- record highs expected. Minimum humidity will be reaching critical threshold across much of the area both today and Monday, along with worsening overnight recovery. Wetting storms will be absent from the forecast until after moisture is replenished by a backdoor front Monday night. Until then hot, dry and unstable conditions will expand across the area with Haines values of 5 and 6. Another, stronger backdoor front will bring more moisture Tuesday night into Wednesday, setting the stage for daily rounds of wetting storms through the end of the work-week and into the weekend as the upper high remains west west of New Mexico over southern California and Arizona. 11 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 PM MDT this evening for the following zones... NMZ538. && $$ 46