722 FXUS64 KSHV 250011 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 711 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 .AVIATION... For the 25/00z TAFS...VFR conditions at all the TAF sites, However, widely scattered convection continues across the region with the bulk of the precip occurring just north of the I-20 corridor. Most of this activity should start to dissipate late this evening. After the activity wanes, MVFR ceilings are expected across the whole area after midnight. Near daybreak a few sites will see IFR ceilings briefly before improving around 13Z with additional convection expected to develop by tomorrow afternoon. /20/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 240 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019/ SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Sunday night/ Upper level trough over our region will continue to slowly shift east through the period. As it does so, it will keep rain chances up on Sunday as a surface low near the southwest Louisiana coast shifts northeast. Higher pops have been shifted to our southern zones for tonight which then shifts north and eastward across our eastern half of our area as the surface low traverses this area on Sunday and Sunday afternoon. Warmer temperatures have been skewed from west to east across the region due to the higher rain chances to the east. With weak upper level steering in place and precipitable water values near 2 inches, some training of storms could occur leading to higher rainfall amounts. /35/ LONG TERM.../Monday through Saturday/ Upper air analysis to begin the long term forecast will show a departing trough of low pressure moving out of the Mid Miss/Tenn/ Lower Miss Valley and into the Ohio/Lower Appalachian Chain Monday Night into Tuesday. There should be enough residual lift on the back side of the trough and available moisture to warrant small chance pops across our eastern third Monday before the convection pulls east of our region. Monday Night into Tuesday, we begin to look to our north and northwest for disturbances moving our way in northwest flow aloft. Upper ridging begins to take control across the Southwest U.S. with a strong ridge axis across the state of Texas and into our western half thru Tue. This northwest flow will help to drive a surface cold front southward into our region Tue into Wed which will help to focus convection as well across much of our region. Continued mentioning chance pops for our northeast half on Tue with chance pops area wide Tue Night through Wed before the front starts to backdoor itself into our region from the north and east Wed Night into Thu. This front should not have enough push to make it completely through our region but instead will serve as a focus for additional, mainly diurnally driven isolated to widely scattered convection to finish off the upcoming work week with some indication that the upper level ridge will retrograde back westward into the Four Corners Region of the Country to begin the upcoming weekend. Concerning temperatures, stayed pretty close to NBM values with afternoon highs and overnight lows, especially seeing that this is the warmer guidance Monday and Tuesday across our western third given the ridge position before it begins retreating. 13 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 76 91 76 97 / 20 40 10 10 MLU 74 88 74 92 / 40 60 20 40 DEQ 74 89 72 94 / 40 30 20 10 TXK 74 89 74 95 / 30 30 20 10 ELD 73 89 73 92 / 30 50 20 30 TYR 76 95 77 99 / 20 30 10 10 GGG 76 93 76 97 / 20 30 10 10 LFK 76 92 76 96 / 20 40 10 10 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ 20