465 FXUS63 KLMK 241750 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 150 PM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .Short Term...(This afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 330 AM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Clockwise flow around a surface high centered over the Great Lakes early this morning will send cooler, drier air into the area on a northeast breeze for the first half of the weekend. For all but southern Kentucky, this will result in mostly sunny skies as well. Closer to the Tennessee border, however, the northern edge of the cloud deck that brought rain to the area on Friday will be slow to move out/erode before drifting back northward Saturday night as the surface high moves away. A few showers are possible toward sunrise Sunday morning in the south as the influence of the surface high wanes. High temperatures Saturday will again be below normal, though not as much as we saw in the rain on Friday, with most locations topping out within 2 degrees either side of 80. Saturday night lows will range from the mid 50s in southern Indiana to near 65 along the Tennessee line. .Long Term...(Sunday night through Friday) Updated at 315 AM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019 There some contradictory signals on rain chances for Sunday...as a warm frontal boundary tries to move across the region. 3 km NAM...normally a rainy choice anytime there's plentiful atmospheric moisture...does have some rains in the late morning to early afternoon hours south of the KY Pkwys, but then it dries up those rain chances for the rest of the afternoon. Coarser GFS and GEFS are paint a much wetter picture. Taking all of this into account, think there will be some light rain showers along the leading edge of the higher moisture, but think rainfall totals north of the Parkways will be around a hundredth of an inch. Weak low-level jet Sunday night, ahead of a trough moving through the Midwest, should help to spark better coverage of rains overnight Sunday into Monday morning. Coverage should wane as we get to the lunch hour. With the trough overhead, we'll have to watch for any pockets of insolation to generate additional late afternoon/evening storms. Cloud cover should keep our high temperatures below normal Monday. A second trough will swing through on Tuesday, this time bringing a surface cold front across the Ohio Valley. The trend in the deterministic models is for this front to clear the region out for midweek, but the GEFS continues to hang on to pops east of I-65 for Wednesday. The Blended model solution looks overdone here, with 30- 40 pops east of I-65 and 20-30 west. After collaboration with the neighbors decided to back off to only 20 pops across my south for the afternoon. The rest of the work week is trending drier, as models perhaps are trending towards a wetter solution off the Atlantic coast. Temperatures should stay near normal. && .Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance) Updated at 150 PM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019 VFR weather will continue through the rest of today with breezy northeast winds. Frequent gusts of 15-20 kts are likely through 23- 00z this evening. Looking at just a few cu this afternoon at the terminals, with SCT mid level clouds at BWG. An actual ceiling will redevelop over BWG by late tonight and expand northward over HNB/SDF/LEX Sunday morning. LEX and HNB will stay dry through this TAF period, but SDF could certainly see scattered showers in the planning period. Ceilings will gradually lower on Sunday, with BWG likely seeing a period of MVFR beginning mid- morning. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. KY...None. && $$ Short Term...JBS Long Term...RJS Aviation...EBW