958 FXUS65 KABQ 241729 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1129 AM MDT Sat Aug 24 2019 .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE VFR conditions will prevail over the region through the TAF period. Afternoon wind gusts up to 20-25 knots were captured in the previous TAF package and no significant changes are noted. A few storms may develop in northeast NM with a slightly greater chance in the Upper Gila and Sacramento Mts during peak heating into early evening. The risk at KTCC/KROW is too low to include in TAFs. DPorter && .PREV DISCUSSION...306 AM MDT Sat Aug 24 2019... .SYNOPSIS... Hot and dry condtions will be the rule through the weekend and into early next week. Near record to record heat is expected Sunday and Monday, especially east. Some relief to the heat expected on Tuesday in the form of a cold front moving in from the northeast. Moisture is forecast to increase in behind the front with afternoon showers and thunderstorms returning to many areas Wednesday through the end of the work week. && .DISCUSSION... Westerly outflow from nocturnal convection to the east continues to result in more convection the following day than hi-res models indicate. Isolated to perhaps briefly scattered afternoon thunderstorms are possible today over the south-central mountains and far eastern plains as a result of the overnight moisture surges. A strong storm or two is possible in eastern Union County this afternoon given the forecast bulk shear and CAPE. By Sunday, showers and storms will seem like a distant memory as temperatures heat up to near or above record levels most places but especially for east- central and southeast areas. Very similar conditons are forecast for Monday with heat advisories likely for the east-central and southeast plains both days. It will be a dry heat but rather extreme for late August. A backdoor cold remains on track for northeast NM late-day Monday and for the remainder of the east Monday evening. The front pushes westward into the RGV late Monday night into Tuesday morning. 00Z models now bring much more low level moisture in behind the front for Tuesday with precipitable water (PWATs) rising above an inch. The GFS continues to be the more gung-ho model with regard to precipitation forecasts for Wednesday through next weekend but the ECMWF is too dry given the amount of low level moisture and the likelihood of multiple backdoor fronts moving in to help trigger showers and thunderstorms. Global models continue with the idea of an unseasonably strong jet stream along the northern tier, perhaps sending the Four Corners' high east to over the Southern Plains and allowing a southerly flow over AZ/NM. The North American Monsoon is not dead yet. 33 && .FIRE WEATHER... The warming and drying trend will ramp-up today through Monday, with well above normal temperatures forecast and some record and near- record highs forecast Sun/Mon. Another, more limited, round of wetting storms is anticipated later this afternoon/evening across the eastern plains. Otherwise, wetting storms will be hard to come- by until after moisture is replenished by a backdoor front Monday night. Until then hot, dry and unstable conditions will expand across the area with Haines values of 5 and 6. Chances for wetting storms will remain in the forecast from mid to late week, but daytime temperatures will remain 3-9 degrees above normal with the upper high holding on over the region. 11 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 46