605 FXUS61 KCLE 241058 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 658 AM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure centered east of Lake Superior across central Ontario Canada will drift eastward and reach New England by later Sunday. Low pressure will move east north of the lakes and take a cold front across the local area Tuesday night. High pressure follows in the wake of that front for Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Only tweaked the early morning sky coverage based on current patches of clouds. Weak land breeze did develop, but isn't overly strong. Will keep the slight chance mention for a few raindrops. Previous discussion follows. Lake effect stratocumulus are developing downwind of the lake primarily across northeast OH/nw PA early this morning. Other than a few sprinkles late last evening, convergence has been lacking for any precip. Have lowered the chances and reduced the already narrow coverage of any light shower this morning as winds on the lake have been uniformly northeast around 15 to 20 knots much of the night. Only with the most recent ob at DKK has the wind shifted offshore. With the lack of a land breeze have removed the waterspout mention. Will continue to see the lake clouds, but as we head toward midday this will transition to an inland cumulus field before fading toward evening. Flow more easterly tonight so would expect mostly clear skies. Temperatures ran a few degrees warmer than guidance yesterday with this airmass so have gone a few degrees warmer than guidance for today. This places us in the low/mid 70s. Somewhat cooler tonight with low/mid 50s and a few upper 40s possible. Back to the mid/upper 70s for Sunday. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... The first half of the short term forecast period will remain quiet with an upper ridge over the region and high pressure just east of the area. Expecting dry conditions and seasonable temperatures for Sunday into the first half of Monday. The pattern shift for the week will occur on Monday into Monday night as an upper trough enters the Great Lakes region and will support a surface cold front. Some pre- frontal showers and thunderstorms are possible late Monday into early Tuesday, but the main show will be with the frontal passage on Tuesday into Tuesday night. Have likely PoPs for the forecast area timed with the front as the guidance has fairly good agreement on the west to east progression across the area. While there is some slight warm air advection ahead of the front on Tuesday, think that the area will be too worked over with clouds to push temperatures over the 80 degree mark, so will keep upper 70s for Tuesday's highs. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... For the most part, the long term forecast period appears dry and quiet over the region. Some lingering showers are possible on Wednesday as the cold front departs the region. The supporting upper trough lifts north on Wednesday and flow becomes fairly zonal over the region. High pressure nudges in from the south for Thursday and wobbles slowly eastward on Friday. From here, there are several solutions from the extended guidance members with some showing a pattern shift for next weekend and others keeping quiet weather in place. Will hedge for Friday with a slight chance PoP for now. Temperatures remain seasonable through the period. && .AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/... Cool high pressure has spread across the terminals. SCT/BKN VFR stratocu deck holds across northeast OH/nw PA. Expect fair weather VFR cumulus to dot the sky this afternoon, SCT to BKN at times. Continued fair through Saturday night. Northeast winds around 10 knots, with locally higher around 15 knots near the lakeshore. OUTLOOK...Non VFR possible with a chance of showers and thunderstorms on Monday afternoon and Tuesday. && .MARINE... Northeast flow will be present on the lake today and tonight, as high pressure builds in from the north. Flow has increased on the lake overnight to 15 to 20 knots, resulting in waves of 4 to 5 feet over much of the central basin, expanding east towards the PA water. Will expand the Small Craft Advisory and associated Beach Hazards Statement to the Ashtabula OH and Erie PA nearshore waters and land zones through 10 AM to account for the current conditions that will persist through the next several hours. Expect unfavorable flow to continue for much of today and will extend the SCA/BHS in the central basin until 10 PM. High pressure wobbles east for Sunday, allowing for light easterly flow and eventually weak southeast and offshore flow. Winds will shift around to the south ahead of a cold front on Monday and increase to 15 to 20 knots. The front will cross the lake on Tuesday and flow will become light out of the southwest for Tuesday night and beyond. An SCA may be needed for the frontal passage, but too early too tell at this time. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for OHZ007- 009>012. Beach Hazards Statement until 10 AM EDT this morning for OHZ089. PA...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 AM EDT this morning for PAZ001. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for LEZ148- 149. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LEZ143>147. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Oudeman NEAR TERM...Oudeman SHORT TERM...Sefcovic LONG TERM...Sefcovic AVIATION...Oudeman MARINE...Sefcovic