180 FXUS63 KICT 240435 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1135 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 258 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019 Easterly upslope surface flow, and some mid level warm advection/moisture transport has led to convection developing over portions of central KS this afternoon. Some of this convection will probably drift into portions of central KS for the late afternoon hours. For the late afternoon through tonight, upslope easterly-southeast flow will lead to an unstable airmass pooling over western KS, with this area eroding the cap enough for evening convection to develop. Expect some supercells and clusters of storms to eventually congeal into some sort of eastward moving complex of storms (MCS) late this evening. Propagation vectors suggest any complex that develops will move E-SE towards the forecast area late tonight into early on Sat morning. So will go with a solid pop for areas west of I-135 for this chance. Slow movement of the individual storms may lead to a flash flooding threat, considering the complex will be moving a moisture rich environment with precipitable water values of 160-180 percent of normal. So have already issued a flash flood watch, for portions of central KS as flash flood guidance remains around 2 in. in 3/hrs. Not sure how far the complex of storms will make it across the forecast area for early on Sat, as the complex outruns the main instability axis over central KS. So think the complex will slowly die during the morning hours on Sat as it moves east. Expect to see lots of remnant cloud cover across the area on Sat, with continued easterly flow leading to max temps almost 10 degrees below normal. Focus than shifts to Sat afternoon/evening, with another complex of storms expected to develop over the high plains of NW KS. Both the ECMWF and GFS show better mid level forcing on Sat afternoon across NW KS into central KS, which should lead to more numerous and robust convection developing. As Saturday evening evolves, think this will lead to an east-southeast moving forward propagating strong/severe convective complex of storms for Sat evening/night. Think this complex will have enough strength to push into areas west of I-135, mainly from KGBD to KICT sometime late Sat evening. Bulk shear and instability suggests complex will be strong to severe as it moves into the forecast area during the evening hours. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding will also be a concern as portions of south central KS remain very saturated, and precipitable water values will remain high. So could see another flash flood watch issued for Sat evening through Sun. Think showers/storms will be ongoing across most of southern KS for Sunday morning possibly into Sun afternoon for eastern sections, so will keep some chance pops in for the lingering showers on Sun. Ketcham .LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday) Issued at 258 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019 Increasing warm advection for late Sun into Mon will push most of the convective activity further northeast of the area thru early Mon. Could see some sort of complex of storms move across NE KS and eastern KS for early Mon. A strong cold front looks to push south across the area for Mon night through Tue, so storm chances will return to much of southern KS through Tue evening. The middle to end of the week looks dry, with possibly some lingering storms along the KS/OK border late Tue, as the medium range models suggests a ridge of high pressure will settle over the plains. This will lead to a period of dry and seasonal conditions for the area. Model blends look way over done with pops for Wed, so with collaboration with neighbors, lowered or removed pops for most of Wed/Wed night. Ketcham && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) Issued at 1134 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019 Primary aviation concerns: TSRA and low clouds Thunderstorms have increased across western Kansas over the past several hours and the thinking is that these storms will gradually work east overnight, potentially getting as far east as the KCNU vicinity by early Saturday morning. Confidence in TSRA impacts is highest across central Kansas, then tapers off some further south and east of there. MVFR CIGS/VIS may accompany the SHRA/TSRA as well, with a more widespread stratocumulus deck not out of the question. This initial round of storms may push east and north of the area by Saturday afternoon, with another round of storms possible Saturday evening. It is unclear what, if any, impact the current storms will have on redevelopment Saturday evening. Because of the uncertainty, I opted to leave TSRA out of the TAFs for the Saturday evening period, but this may need to be added in if confidence increases. Martin && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 70 81 66 82 / 20 50 50 60 Hutchinson 69 79 66 82 / 40 50 50 50 Newton 69 79 66 81 / 60 50 50 60 ElDorado 70 79 67 81 / 30 50 50 50 Winfield-KWLD 70 81 67 81 / 30 50 50 60 Russell 69 80 65 85 / 60 50 50 30 Great Bend 69 79 65 83 / 60 50 50 30 Salina 69 79 67 82 / 60 50 50 50 McPherson 69 79 65 81 / 60 50 50 60 Coffeyville 70 82 68 81 / 60 50 50 50 Chanute 69 80 67 80 / 60 40 50 40 Iola 68 79 67 80 / 60 40 40 40 Parsons-KPPF 70 80 67 79 / 50 50 50 50 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch until 8 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ032-047. && $$ SHORT TERM...Ketcham LONG TERM...Ketcham AVIATION...RM