333 
FXUS63 KFGF 240253
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
953 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 951 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019

Based on current radar and short range CAMs pulled pops from DVL
basin thru 12z Sat as nothing will occur. Any activity looks to be
quite far west into western ND tonight. Did trim back movement
east of the pops Saturday in coord with BIS and only after 21z
have any precip into the Red River valley. Not going to get much
precip east until main 500 mb system comes up Sunday it would 
appear. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019

Ridging prevails today but is slowly moving eastward as an upper low 
approaches from the west. The main challenge is timing the onset of 
precipitation tonight into Saturday as dry air remains in place 
across the region. Southwest winds turn southerly gradually 
overnight and will slowly increase our moisture levels ahead of the 
approaching H5 trough. Adjustments were made to the forecast to slow 
the onset of precipitation on Saturday with increasing PoPs now 
expected during the morning hours. 

QPF values will be the next challenge as we are expecting widespread 
shower activity with more isolated to scattered thunderstorms within 
the showers, giving us an overall expectation of around an inch of 
rain. Areas in the footprint of convective activity, however, could 
see higher amounts with some guidance suggesting upwards of 2 or 
more inches. Winds will increase as the trough approaches with 
southerly winds of 15 to 20 mph and gusts upwards of 30 to 35 mph 
for Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019

Sunday through Tuesday

For Sunday, expect to see rain chances increase and become more 
widespread with the progression of the low pressure system. By 
Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening, rain chances look to be likely 
first in eastern North Dakota and then spread across much of western 
Minnesota by the evening. Winds will also be breezy out of the 
south. With PWAT values in the top 10% to top 2.5% across much of 
the area for the weekend, some areas may see upwards of 1.5 inches 
or more. Since the precipitation is likely to be convective due to 
heating, there is a lot of uncertainty as to which specific areas 
will see higher amounts. However, total rainfall values of near an 
inch to possibly more will be fairly widespread. Rain coverage looks 
to decrease on Monday night. For Tuesday, a secondary cold front 
will pass through the area bringing cooler temperatures and chances 
for isolated showers. Highs will fall to the 60s area-wide for 
Tuesday.  

Wednesday through Friday

Following the passage of the secondary cold front, much cooler air 
is expected to move in during the latter portion of the work week. 
The GFS is suggesting a 500mb height anomaly of up to 20 dam below 
normal for this time of year, suggesting that the airmass will be 
cooler than any that have been seen in the past couple of months. 
Fall-like temperatures can be expected, similar to climatological 
averages of mid to late September. Temperatures on Wednesday night 
and Thursday night could fall into the lower 40s for some areas and 
possibly lower if winds are calm and cloud cover is minimal. If 
these conditions come to fruition, some guidance suggests the 
possibility of isolated frost near the international border. The 
main chances for showers during this period will be on Wednesday 
with high temperatures remaining in the 60s for the whole period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 706 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019

Lower end VFR cigs in the DVL basin thru Saturday with increasing
chc for a shower or t-storm Saturday...but still expect most of
the precip to be west of this area. Otherwise some high clouds
tonight into Saturday...thinnest east. Wind will be the main issue
with south-southeast winds 8 to 15 kts tonight then increasing to
15-30 kts with higher gusts in E ND/RRV on Saturday. 


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
SHORT TERM...Lynch
LONG TERM...Wasilewski
AVIATION...Riddle