690 
FXUS62 KMLB 240150
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
950 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019

.UPDATE...
Current-Tonight...Any evidence of yesterday's dry air swath has been 
quickly overrun today by an area of deep moisture associated with a 
weak low pressure system currently centered off the Miami Beach 
coast. This low pressure center is forecast to shift 
west/northwestward overnight, positioning near Lake Okeechobee/FL 
Everglades by daybreak.

No significant changes to the afternoon forecast, with minimal 
adjustments to PoPs across the northern interior, reducing values to 
slight chance prior to midnight and removing thunder mention over 
the interior and north of I-4. The main focus overnight continues to 
be the threat for locally heavy rainfall from persistent rainbands 
that set up across the Treasure Coast, confined primarily to coastal 
Martin, St. Lucie and Indian River counties after midnight. However, 
the confidence for this scenario is low, due to most of the heavy 
rain occurring over the Atlantic waters. Most areas along the coast 
should see less than 0.5 inch of rain, but rainfall accumulations up 
to 3 inches are possible if persistent rainbands develop. Additional 
scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms may push across 
Brevard County tonight, diminishing near the Saint Johns River 
basin. Overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s, with a blanket of 
partly to mostly cloudy skies.

&&

.AVIATION...
A weak low pressure center off the S FL coast has increased moisture 
across the area, leading to a higher precip coverage tonight and 
tomorrow. Iso/sct SHRA will move onshore overnight, with impacts 
confined to coastal terminals, handled tonight by VCSH. The 
potential remains for developing persistent rainbands near KVRB 
south to KSUA after 06Z, however confidence in this scenario is too 
low to include TEMPO at this time. Numerous showers are expected to 
move westward after daybreak tomorrow, with convection potential 
for interior terminals after 17Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight...(modified prev) With the approach of the low pressure 
area to south FL tonight, southeast winds will increase to 10-15 
knots near shore and 15-20 knots across the central/srn offshore 
waters. Will continue SCEC headlines offshore for these areas in
the evening update. Scattered to numerous showers and storms are 
expected overnight from associated deep moisture.

Saturday...SE winds to 10-15 knots with seas to 3-4 ft offshore. 
A high coverage of showers and storms expected with locally heavy
rainfall, lightning and gusty winds potentially over 35 knots 
in stronger storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  88  76  89 /  20  50  20  40 
MCO  76  91  76  94 /  20  50  20  50 
MLB  79  88  77  90 /  50  60  30  50 
VRB  75  89  76  91 /  60  60  40  60 
LEE  77  92  76  93 /  20  50  20  50 
SFB  76  91  76  93 /  20  50  20  50 
ORL  77  91  77  94 /  20  50  20  50 
FPR  75  89  75  91 /  60  60  40  60 

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Smith/Kelly/Combs