489 FXUS61 KBGM 232330 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 730 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds across southeastern Canada tonight through the weekend. This will keep our weather dry and cool under partly sunny skies. There will be a gradual warming trend next week, with chances for showers and thunderstorms returning Tuesday and Wednesday along a passing cold front. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... 7 pm update... Just minor changes since forecast in good shape. Drier air coming in quickly with dewpoint temperatures dropping into the 40s and skies clearing from the north. Late tonight some valley fog forms across south central NY and NEPA. At the same time an upper level low drops into the Finger Lakes increasing the clouds. This will continue through the area Saturday with some clouds. 230 pm update... Main concerns in the near term are limited to cooler overnight temperatures and patchy valley morning fog. Very quiet weather tonight through Saturday night with a large area of high pressure at the surface rolling across the Northeast, in combination with very dry air, keeping chances for rain either low or near zero. Upper level short wave associated with a parent low pressure system over Quebec will become disconnected and cutoff from the main flow over NY and get trapped under the upper level ridge during the day Saturday. The air mass will be so dry that the presence of this low should have minimal impacts on our area. Supplemental cloud cover may be the only effect of this low. The dry air will also be much cooler than we've seen recently. Afternoon highs on Saturday will be in the lower to mid 70s...with morning lows Sat and Sunday in the upper 40s and lower 50s. There may be a couple lower 40 deg readings in the Catskills Saturday morning. Conditions will also be favorable for patchy valley fog as well. The colder air will drain downvalley and allow for a sharp inversion just above the surface. This inversion will trap moisture near the surface and combine with light or calm winds to aid in the production of fog both Sat and Sun morning. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will be in place across northern New England Sunday then slowly move offshore early next week. A low pressure system will track well off the east coast with a cold front over the Great Lakes. Our region will in between all these features. Usually these placements of these features place our region in an area of subsidence, preventing shower chances. With that said, even though a few ensembles have some showers this forecast is mainly dry through Tuesday. Highs should get into the 70's after crisp starts in the 40's and 50's. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The previously mentioned cold front is currently projected to move through our region on Wednesday. Enough moisture along the front should be lifted enough for some showers. Instability looks very limited so only a few rumbles of thunder are possible at this time. However, some spread is still present within the ensembles on the arrival of the cold front. As a result, this spreads out the shower chances into Tuesday night and early Thursday as well. With the added moisture and clouds lows will trend warmer to around 60 each morning with highs getting closer to 80 due to some warm southerly flow. Thursday night through Friday: This period looks to be a break between cold fronts. Moisture looks limited at this time with the next cold front. Given that and timing uncertainities will keep this period on the drier side. Continued highs around 80 and lows near 60 on average. && .AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 720 pm update... Mainly VFR expected through the TAF period...with the exception for periods of MVFR/IFR vsbys in valley fog at KELM early Saturday morning. With fewer clouds and light low level winds the fog should be more widespread than this morning. Have MVFR vsbys from 08 to 13z with IFR vsbys at times 9 to 12z. With dry air moving in tonight will be mainly clear with light and variable winds. Saturday winds will be north at 5 kts with scattered to broken clouds at 5k ft. Outlook... Saturday night through Monday...VFR, except late night/early morning fog likely at KELM. Monday night and Tuesday...VFR expected. Tuesday night and Wednesday...Restrictions possible in showers and storms. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BJT/TAC NEAR TERM...BJT/TAC SHORT TERM...MWG LONG TERM...MWG AVIATION...TAC