018 
FXUS65 KLKN 232136
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
236 PM PDT Fri Aug 23 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions will continue into early next week.
Moisture tries to return by Wednesday of next week introducing
chances for isolated thunderstorms, with possible isolated
showers, across parts of the state. Gusty winds are expected 
across central and northern Nevada Saturday and especially 
Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday. Not much going on in the
weather department today as northern and central Nevada sits
sandwiched in-between an upper ridge over the eastern Pacific and
a shortwave trough in southern Montana. The quiet weather will
continue tonight with overnight lows in the 40s and 50s.

The dry weather will continue tomorrow. Although winds will be
breezy, it should not be too bad. Highs in the afternoon will be
warm for this time of year, with readings in the low to mid 90s.
Another quiet night is expected with lows in the 40s and 50s.

By Sunday, a frontal passage is expected but it will be dry.
Afternoon highs will cool several degrees but still be in the mid
80s to low 90s. Stronger afternoon winds will be possible and that
could lead to elevated fire weather concerns - see the fire
weather discussion below.

.LONG TERM...Sunday night through next Thursday. Upper level
ridging will remain over the western United States with a fairly
large upper trough across southern Canada. Northwest flow will
remain over northern and central Nevada with overnight lows in the
40s and 50s, though the drier air could bring some upper 30s to low
40s into the picture for some of the colder locales in northern
Elko county.

The ridge axis will begin shifting east during Monday and Tuesday.
This will result in some breezy afternoon winds (but not as strong
as Saturday and Sunday) with dry conditions remaining. Monday high
temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s, climbing into
the low to mid 90s by Tuesday. Overnight lows will be in the 40s
and 50s.

Wednesday and Thursday. The upper ridge circulation will center 
itself over the four corners region. This will bring a slow 
moisture tap to the area. Could see an isolated dry thunderstorm 
in central Nevada Wednesday afternoon, but it is far out in time
and confidence is not high at this time. Same goes for Thursday.
Highs will be in the upper 80s to mid 90s both days with lows in
the 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...Look for VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. Some
breezy winds will be possible during the afternoon on Saturday
with some gusts to 25 knots.

Note: KBAM AMD NOT SKED due to missing clouds/cigs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Some breezy winds and low RH values during the
afternoons will be in store for the forecast area through the 
period. Though winds will be strong Saturday, the day with the
highest winds looks to be Sunday. As a result, headline fire
weather products have been issued for fire zones 469 and 470. Fire
zone 467 and 468 looks to be borderline with respect to criteria,
so decided not to issue headline products. Some breezes are 
possible Monday but are not expected to reach fire weather 
thresholds. The upper ridge circulation will scoot east Tuesday 
and Wednesday, allowing for moisture to move in from the south. 
Have nudged pops up into the 10-14 percent range for central 
Nevada, with an isolated dry thunderstorm possible Wednesday and 
even Thursday. Will need to watch the evolution of this pattern 
though.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening 
for Eastern Elko County-Southwestern and Central Elko County.

&&

$$

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