241 FXUS61 KBGM 231549 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 1149 AM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level trough will be over the region today, bringing cooler temperatures, partly cloudy skies and perhaps an isolated shower in central New York. A cool Canadian high builds just to our north tonight through the weekend. This will keep our weather dry and cool under partly sunny skies. expect a gradual warming trend next week, with chances for showers and thunderstorms returning by Tuesday and Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... 1145 am update... No significant changes made to the forecast this morning. Relatively quiet weather expected into the weekend. 645 AM Update...Adjusted cloud cover up across the southeastern half of the forecast area, where mid and high level clouds continue to stream overhead. A few rain showers are still impacting the far SE boundary of our CWA, but these will move out in the next hour or two. Skies are mostly clear, aside from some sct cirrus up north near Penn Yan, Auburn, Syracuse and Rome. Previous Discussion Below Scattered rain showers are still skirting the Wyoming Valley, Poconos and Sullivan county NY. Based on upstream radar/satellite trends expect these light showers to continue in this area for at least the next several hours, only very slowly exiting to the southeast around or just after daybreak. The rest of the area is dry under mostly clear skies across Central NY for the rest of the overnight. Areas of fog are already forming in the deeper valleys in central NY, this will linger until around daybreak as well. Upper level trough will remain in place over the region during the day today. GOES-East WV loop shows a shortwave disturbance near Georgian Bay/Lake Huron that will drop south toward our area later today. An upslope NNW flow and cold pool aloft should pick up just enough lake moisture to allow for bkn strato cumulus develop starting late morning and lasting well into the afternoon across much of CNY and the N. tier of PA. Cannot rule out an isolated shower near the Finger Lakes as well, otherwise it will remain dry today. Further south across the Wyoming Valley, Poconos and Sullivan County NY, it will be a rather thick layer of high clouds that may linger much of the day. Overall, today is looking mostly cloudy, with some breaks of sun at times, both early (north) and late in the day. Northwest winds increase 6-12 mph during the afternoon, and high temperatures only reach the upper 60s to mid-70s. Tonight: Surface ridging builds over the area from the north. Cloud cover should dissipate quickly this evening, leading to mostly clear skies overnight. Winds become light northerly or variable. There will likely be fog formation in the typical river valleys around the area. One thing of note is that a weak upper level low at 500mb will actually be on top of the area, but this low has very limited moisture...so at worst there could be some cloud development. Very cool, with lows 45-52 most locations. Saturday: Previously mentioned weak upper level low remains over the area, but surface ridging and very dry mid level air will also be in place; therefore should be dry. Overall, am expecting another seasonably cool day under partly to mostly sunny skies. Light north winds continue 5-10 mph and high temperatures again reach the upper 60s to mid-70s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Overall, a dry and seasonably cool airmass will be in place during this period, with highs in the lower to mid 70s and lows ranging from the upper 40s to mid 50s, with some mid 40s in the higher elevations of the Catskills. While the likelihood is that completely dry weather will prevail through Monday, there remains some uncertainty regarding Sunday's forecast, mainly across the extreme eastern portions of the forecast area as an upper level low spins off the southern New England coast. At this time, it appears that the dry air will likely win out in our area, and therefore do not have any POPs in Sunday's forecast. Should enough low level moisture from the Atlantic make it to our eastern zones, there would be the possibility of a shower or two on Sunday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... The main feature to track during this period will be a slow moving cold front that will approach the area and eventually move through the area during the Monday night through Wednesday night timeframe. Along with this approaching front will be an increasing chance for showers and some thunderstorms, with the greatest chance for this being on Wednesday at this time. That being said, there remains some timing differences of this front between the various model solutions and therefore this forecast is subject to change a bit as we get closer. Temperatures will be on a slight warming trend as well, with highs likely getting to the upper 70s to lower 80s by mid-week. The above mentioned front should finally clear the area by Thursday, resulting in a drying trend. Just a slight chance of seeing a few additional showers on Thursday with highs generally in the upper 70s to lower 80 again. && .AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 5 AM Update Mainly VFR expected through the TAF period. Mid and high level clouds will continue streaming over KBGM and KAVP through the morning hours. Fog did not develop at any of the taf sites overnight and is no longer expected early this morning. However, patchy valley fog could develop late tonight toward the end of the taf period, especially INVOF KELM. By late morning and afternoon sct to bkn 3.5-5k ft strato- cumulus everywhere with high clouds continuing at KAVP. Light and variable winds or northwest through mid morning. Then, northwest to north winds at 5 to 10 kts late morning and afternoon. Light and variable winds again tonight. Outlook... Tonight through Monday...VFR, except late night/early morning fog likely at KELM. Monday...VFR, except late night/early morning fog likely at KELM. Monday night and Tuesday...VFR expected. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MJM NEAR TERM...BJT/MJM SHORT TERM...BJG LONG TERM...BJG AVIATION...MJM