304 FXUS63 KICT 230837 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 337 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night) Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019 Today-Tonight: Initial concern is potential for fog, given moist ground and nearly saturated upslope flow. Best chance for fog is across middle of forecast area where temperatures have radiated a bit cooler. In absence of extensive cirrus would be inclined to hoist advisory. Otherwise will keep small chances for storms in far southeast KS for a few hours. Expect storms in northwest KS to wane just prior to reaching central KS per preponderance of guidance. Most of the area should remain dry during the afternoon, with chances ramping up later tonight. While some elevated storms are possible in southeast KS, better chance will be with anticipated complex moving southeast and likely clipping western half of the area after midnight. Saturday-Sunday: Rain/storms will continue on Saturday morning with clearing likely faster than forecast during the afternoon. Another round of nocturnal storms is anticipated Saturday night as weak upper closed low/circulation moves along KS/Nebraska border. Again expect clearing during the day probably faster than forecast. Some small chances for storms late Sunday night, mainly in northeast sections, but would not be surprised if later forecast shunt this area east. -Howerton .LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019 Despite early surface ridge, pattern favors a lower predictability regime given diffluent northwest to west northwest flow. Consensus is likely overdone with extent of precipitation. Appears better chances will be on Monday afternoon-evening. GFS/ECMWF diverge with surface boundary by Tuesday, with GFS pushing surface high east and setting up return flow and moisture. ECMWF holds surface ridge and keeps forecast dry starting Tuesday. ECMWF does suggest storms in northern OK could flirt with the KS border Tuesday night. Temperatures will be strongly influenced by any clouds/convective debris during the period and surface boundary position late in this period. -Howerton && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 1144 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2019 VFR prevailed across the area late this evening while temperature and dewpoint spreads were rapidly narrowing. A moist boundary layer and light easterly upslope flow should result in at least some patchy fog, especially across central and portions of south central KS where less clouds are anticipated. Maintained VCSH near KCNU as some scattered showers and storms lift northeast out of OK. We may also see some stratus expand in coverage through the overnight hours with IFR and perhaps some brief periods of LIFR across much of central and portions of south central KS. Low cigs will mix out as we move through the morning hours on Fri with VFR anticipated by mid to late morning. Light easterly & southeasterly winds are anticipated through the day. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 84 70 82 66 / 0 30 40 50 Hutchinson 84 69 81 66 / 10 40 50 50 Newton 82 69 80 66 / 10 30 40 50 ElDorado 81 70 80 67 / 10 20 30 50 Winfield-KWLD 83 70 82 67 / 10 20 30 50 Russell 82 69 79 65 / 10 50 40 50 Great Bend 83 69 82 65 / 10 50 40 50 Salina 83 69 80 67 / 10 30 30 50 McPherson 83 69 80 65 / 10 30 50 50 Coffeyville 82 70 83 68 / 20 20 40 50 Chanute 81 69 81 67 / 20 20 40 50 Iola 81 68 80 67 / 20 30 40 40 Parsons-KPPF 81 70 82 67 / 20 20 40 50 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...PJH LONG TERM...PJH AVIATION...MWM