687 FXUS64 KSJT 230524 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1224 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019 .AVIATION... /06Z TAFS/ Primarily VFR conditions expected through 06Z Sat, except for brief MVFR/IFR/LIFR CIGs where heavy showers/thunderstorms occur. Through 09Z, thunderstorms across the Concho Valley and western Big Country will likely continue, with brief heavy rain possible. After 09Z, shower/thunderstorm activity should diminish. Then isolated to scattered thunderstorms likely to develop after 19Z across the forecast area. For now, went with VCSH for the TAF sites for that time period, but may need to go to VCTS if confidence increases. Winds, other than N to NW gusty winds from thunderstorm gust fronts, should continue to be from the south, mostly less than 12 KT. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 957 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2019/ UPDATE... Per recent radar trends, the forecast tonight has been updated to carry increased PoPs across the western Big Country and parts of the Concho Valley. Showers have increased in coverage across the western Concho Valley (Irion, Sterling and far northwestern Tom Green Counties) with an outflow boundary moving southeast into the area. The outflow boundary emanated from showers and thunderstorms over parts of the eastern Permian Basin. Cloud cover has also been increased across the western half of our area including the Concho Valley. This shower/thunderstorm activity is expected to dissipate as we go into the overnight hours. 19 PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 659 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2019/ AVIATION... /00Z TAFS/ VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours. Isolated convection is possible through mid evening, primarily near KSOA and will add VCSH through 02Z and amend as necessary. Isolated to widely scattered convection will be possible again late Friday afternoon, with the better chance near KABI. Given uncertainties regarding coverage, will hold off mentioning at this time. 24 PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 242 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2019/ SHORT TERM... (Tonight and Tomorrow) This afternoon, the pesky upper-level ridge continues to plague the southern Plains with hot weather. However, a few weaknesses in the ridge are allowing thunderstorms to develop across parts of the Big Country. Some of these storms may drift down towards the I-20 corridor overnight before weakening. Otherwise, conditions should be partly cloudy with mild temperatures. Tomorrow, a weak mid-level impulse will move across the Red River Valley which will help to bring more chances for thunderstorms, mainly tomorrow afternoon, across the Big Country. Some isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible for parts of the Edwards Plateau and Concho Valley tomorrow afternoon, where a narrow plume of CAPE values exceed 2500 J/kg, and where ample dynamics exist aloft. Outside of precipitation, the airmass will still be warm enough to support highs in the upper 90s to around 100. SK LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Thursday) Friday night into Saturday, models continue to show a possibility of some scattered showers and thunderstorms, as shortwave energy moves through the area. Chances were kept at slight chance as the activity is expected to be isolated to scattered at best. Temperatures will continue to be hotter than normal through this time period, but we could see a few degrees cooler for Saturday with the potential for additional cloud cover in the area. Sunday and Monday continue to look very hot, with highs from the upper 90s to around 105 degrees for most of the area, although it's not out of the realm of possibilities for locations in the Big Country to approach 110 degrees. Following Monday, medium range models have not backed off on the possibility of a cold front for next week. This would mean continued hot and generally dry weather through the end of next week. Obviously, with the models going back and forth on solutions, the forecast is very uncertain after Monday, but have kept temperatures warmer than normal through the second half of next week. 20 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 96 74 97 75 / 20 20 20 10 San Angelo 101 73 98 73 / 20 20 20 10 Junction 100 72 98 72 / 10 20 20 10 Brownwood 100 72 98 72 / 10 10 20 10 Sweetwater 96 74 98 75 / 20 20 10 10 Ozona 96 71 95 71 / 20 20 20 10 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...24/20/SK AVIATION 06Z TAFS...SJH