077 
FXUS64 KMAF 221929
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
229 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2019

.DISCUSSION...

The main focus for this forecast package is thunderstorms today
and Friday with a return to potentially record-breaking heat by
the end of the weekend. Weak upper ridging will remain over the
region today and tomorrow with several weak disturbances expected
to wander overhead. Today, a weak shortwave extends from the
Central Plains SW through west TX and into Mexico. This, along
with decent mid-level moisture, will help generate
afternoon/evening thunderstorms which was already underway at
2:30pm CDT. Best chances will be near and west of the Pecos River
however cannot rule out the potential for some isolated thunderstorms
farther east over the Permian Basin. Storms may produce heavy 
rainfall and slow storm motion could result in some areas of 
flooding. In addition, the stronger storms will be capable of 
producing strong downburst winds. Thunderstorms will be possible 
again Friday near the mountain regions and the Big Bend in the 
afternoon, expanding east in the evening. Otherwise, temperatures 
through Saturday will remain above normal with highs generally 
upper 90s. However, areas along the Pecos and Rio Grande river 
valleys will still see highs near or above 100 during this time. 

The upper ridge will begin to strengthen its influence over the 
region this weekend, diminishing rain chances for all through at 
least mid next week. Meanwhile, the mid-level thermal ridge 
returns with 850mb temperatures increasing to 30-35C Sunday and 
Monday. As a result, there is a good chance we will see the return
of record breaking high temperatures for much of the region these
two days. Models show a cold front sagging south into 
southeastern New Mexico and the northern Permian Basin Monday 
night but south winds recover Tuesday afternoon. Also, 850mb 
temperatures back off quite a bit so high temperatures look to 
return to the 90s for most Tuesday through Thursday. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     75  98  75  97 /  20  10  20  10 
Carlsbad                       70  99  72 100 /  20  10  20  10 
Dryden                         76  99  76 100 /  10  30  20  20 
Fort Stockton                  73  96  73  97 /  20  30  20  10 
Guadalupe Pass                 68  90  69  91 /  30  30  30  10 
Hobbs                          70  96  70  97 /  20  10  20  10 
Marfa                          63  90  62  91 /  40  50  40  20 
Midland Intl Airport           74  97  74  98 /  20  10  20  10 
Odessa                         74  97  74  97 /  20  10  20  10 
Wink                           74 100  74 101 /  30  10  20  10 

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

03/27