848 FXUS61 KBGM 221341 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 941 AM EDT Thu Aug 22 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will cross the region today with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially for Northeast Pennsylvania. Dry and cool Canadian high pressure builds in behind the front to end the week and lasts through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Only minor changes with the mid-morning update based on cloud cover impacts on temperatures along the front this morning. Frontal boundary is currently draped across Southern NY. Southwest winds, mild temperatures and higher dew points continue across NE PA and central NY early this morning. High clouds are streaming overhead, along with patchy areas of fog and lower stratus clouds. A band of lower level stratus clouds is evident along the frontal boundary itself. The front washes out late morning along a line from near Monticello to Tunkhannock. This is also evident in the forecast dew point field, as Tds fall into the 50s by afternoon across central NY, but remain in the mid to upper 60s across the Wyoming Valley region of NE PA. Across central NY the front should move through with just isolated showers this morning, then generally dry with breaks of sun by afternoon...especially north. In Northeast PA, it will be dry much of this morning, but then showers and scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop during the afternoon and lingering into the early evening hours. The best chance of thunderstorms will be along and south of I-84/ US 6. Deep layer shear 40-50 kts will combine with the higher dew points and more unstable air mass (MLCAPE 600-900 J/kg) to produce a few stronger or even isolated severe thunderstorms in and around the Wyoming Valley/Poconos region. The main threats will be locally strong, gusty winds and torrential downpours. SPC has this portion of NE PA under a marginal risk for severe t'storms and WPC has a marginal risk for excessive rainfall. Mentioned this potential in the HWO/EHWO products. Bumped temperatures up a few degrees areawide today based on the latest blended guidance. Now looking for high temperatures to reach 75-80 across CNY, and low to mid-80s for NE PA. Breezy west- northwest winds 8-15 mph expected. Tonight: Another wave rides along the slow moving frontal boundary. This should bring additional periods of showers to NE PA and the southern Catskill. Still some model uncertainty on just how far northwest this rain shield will make it. For now have slight chance back to the I-88 corridor, then higher end chance near Scranton to Monticello. NAM/EC continue to be further NW with this rain, while the GFS if further east. Will all depend on where the frontal boundary ends up this evening. Otherwise, it will be mainly dry across the rest of CNY under partly cloudy skies and light winds. Cooler with lows in the 50s. Friday: Perhaps a lingering shower in the early morning across the far southeast. Otherwise a dry northwest flow takes hold of the area. The much cooler air aloft (+8C at 850mb) could pick up some lake moisture and will be upsloping into terrain of CNY. Model soundings show moisture trapped in the 850-925mb layer through much of the morning and early afternoon hours across CNY. Am expecting sct to bkn strato-cumulus to develop and cannot rule out an isolated shower. Northeast PA and Sullivan county NY should see a bit more sun, especially across the lower elevations. Do expect the clouds to gradually scatter and even dissipate late in the day as the low level moisture mixes out and a surface ridge builds. Slightly breezy again, with NW winds 6-12 mph. Much cooler with highs 68-75 across NY, and low to mid-70s in NE PA. This is about 5 degrees below average. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Friday night through Saturday night: High pressure will begin to build in over the area, allowing for mostly clear skies with some patchy valley fog possible late Friday night/early Saturday morning. Low temperatures Friday night are expected to be in the upper 40s to mid 50s, with mid 40s expected in the higher elevations of the Catskills. Then mostly sunny conditions are expected for Saturday with highs in the lower to mid 70s. Another mostly clear night is expected Saturday night with lows mostly in the lower to mid 50s. Sunday through Sunday night: A few showers will be possible east of I-81 on on Sunday as an upper level low slowly meanders east of the area. Despite these low chances of showers east, the majority of the area will likely remain dry with mostly sunny skies. Highs on Sunday will likely be in the lower to mid 70s. Then mostly dry conditions expected Sunday night with just a slight chance of a shower in the extreme southeastern portions of the area. Lows will likely be in the lower to mid 50s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Overall, a mainly quiet period of weather is expected with weak upper ridging developing. The main feature to track will be a cold front that will likely move through either late Tuesday or sometime on Wednesday. This will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to the area sometime during the above mentioned period, depending on the timing of the front. It is worth noting that models have trended a bit quicker with this front compared to prior runs. After the passage of the front, mainly quiet weather will likely continue with just a slight chance of seeing some additional showers on Thursday. Temperatures will be on a bit of warming trend before the above mentioned front moves through. It will be becoming increasing humid as well. Highs will likely mostly be in the mid to upper 70s on Monday, with upper 70s to lower 80s expected the remainder of the period. Lows will likely be mostly in the 50s Monday night, with upper 50s to lower 60s expected Tuesday and Wednesday nights. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 7 AM Update Lingering valley fog over the upper susquehanna region and western catskills will dissipate by mid morning. Fog is not currently or forecast to impact any terminals today. As expected a fuel alternate or MVFR cloud deck is moving through the NY terminals, but should scatter out by around 14-15z this morning. Confidence in this timing, and going back to VFR by late morning is medium to high. Other thing to monitor will be the chance for a few showers or even a -tsra invof KAVP between about 22/19-23z. Guidance is showing some MVFR restrictions here with these showers and into the evening hours as the front stalls nearby. Showers or drizzle could continue into the late evening hours at KAVP. Valley fog is possible near KELM late tonight into Friday morning. West to northwest winds at around 6-10 kts today, becoming light and variable overnight. Outlook... Thursday night...Borderline MVFR/VFR conditions linger at KAVP with a few shra around. Valley fog toward morning near KELM. Friday through Monday...VFR, except late night/early morning fog possible at KELM. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MJM NEAR TERM...MJM/MWG SHORT TERM...BJG LONG TERM...BJG AVIATION...MJM/TAC