901 FXUS64 KBMX 221129 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 629 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2019 .UPDATE... For 12Z Aviation. && .SHORT TERM... /Updated at 0342 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2019/ Today and Tonight. We will continue to see an increase in moisture today as the area of high pressure begins to slide east southeast during the afternoon. This will allow the southerly flow to increase around the western periphery of the high. This in turn will increase the activity possible across the area as well as the increase in cloud cover through the afternoon. Look for the best coverage to be in the west, where the moisture increase is the highest. Elsewhere scattered showers/storms will be possible, with the highest chances in the southeast as an outflow will move northeastward during the morning. Look for highs to be in the low to mid 90s. As we move into the evening the best chances will remain in the western counties. We may see some outflow boundaries from convection along the front, still well to our north, move close to the area through the evening and even possibly overnight across the far north. Look for lows to be in the upper 60s to low 70s. 16 .LONG TERM... /Updated at 0342 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2019/ Friday through Wednesday. Daily rain chances and steady drought relief will continue through this extended update as near normal to slightly below average temperatures prevail for the second half of the period. Consistent onshore flow from the sfc to 500mb will continually provide Gulf moisture across the state which will keep a humid airmass in place through the afternoon, though highs will be a few degrees lower than previous days with upper 80s to lower 90s expected as a result of afternoon cloud cover and rainfall. Additionally, a deep-layer longwave trough will extend from the Canadian Maritimes southwest into the lower Tennessee Valley. At the surface, an east to west oriented cold front will progress into the northern parts of the state before slowing and eventually stalling over far northern portions of the forecast area. This boundary is not expected to pass through Central Alabama, though it will provide synoptic support for numerous to likely PoPs on Friday each day through Sunday. The main concern will continue to be isolated pockets of damaging winds within any thunderstorm activity, but with higher moisture content and less dry air present throughout the column, the likelihood for downbursts should decrease. Eventually the boundary will advect to the northeast on Monday as shortwave upper-level troughing develops and deepens over the southern Mississippi Valley embedded within a larger-scale trough over the central CONUS. Not much support has been noted at the surface, but upper-level divergence and cyclonic curvature aloft will continue to drive numerous to likely showers and thunderstorms across the forecast area Monday into Tuesday with many locations potentially remaining below 90F on Monday. The pattern will remain active through the end of this period with the shortwave becoming absorbed in the flow by the parent trough now well developed over central Canada extending south to the Arklatex. Guidance is in fair agreement on an additional front reaching the forecast area by the end of this extended forecast with the potential for dry air to move back in after mid-week. 86 && .AVIATION... 12Z TAF Discussion. There could potentially be some low clouds/fog development in the next 2 hours at TCL, TOI, ANB, and ASN. Generally looking at MVFR conditions though. Clear skies this morning then we will see isolated to scattered showers/storms this afternoon. Looks like the best chances will be at TCL after 21Z. MGM and TOI have a good chance so included prob30 here as well after 21Z. ANB and ASN could see scattered showers/storms but would be after 22 to 23Z. As for BHM and EET, there is a20 to 30 percent chance after 21Z, but just not enough confidence with the models to include more than VCTS at this time. Given the expected rain at the other 5 sites, included MVFR fog after 7 to 9Z Friday morning. 16 && .FIRE WEATHER... Scattered to numerous rain chances are expected today as moisture content continues to rise. By Friday, rain chances remain in the forecast due to moist southerly flow with a frontal boundary stalling to the north. Temperatures will gradually return to normal levels through the week as relative humidity values continue to rise. No critical fire weather conditions are anticipated. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 92 71 90 70 89 / 40 40 70 60 70 Anniston 93 71 91 71 88 / 40 30 60 50 70 Birmingham 93 73 92 73 90 / 40 30 70 50 80 Tuscaloosa 93 73 92 73 90 / 60 30 70 50 80 Calera 93 71 91 71 88 / 30 20 70 40 70 Auburn 91 72 90 72 90 / 40 30 50 30 60 Montgomery 94 73 93 73 90 / 40 30 60 30 60 Troy 91 71 91 71 90 / 40 30 50 20 50 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/... None. && $$