809 FXUS64 KLUB 220544 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1244 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2019 .AVIATION... An outflow boundary has swept through KPVW and will move through KLBB in the next few minutes, bringing gusty NNW winds. This outflow may also affect KCDS by around 07Z, though it may lose some momentum by then. Isolated convection was attempting to develop along and immediately behind the boundary, and could affect any of the terminal early this morning...though confidence in a direct impact of a thunderstorm remains low. Given this, have included VCTS in the TAFs and will amend if/when any direct impacts look more probable. This outflow should "wash out" early Thursday morning, gradually yielding to a return of southwesterly breezes after dawn. Scattered thunderstorm development (and strong downburst winds) is looking more likely by 20-21Z, and could affect any/all of the terminals through the late afternoon into the evening. This potential will be evaluated closer in future TAF forecasts. Otherwise, outside of any storm impacts, VFR will prevail. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 250 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019/ DISCUSSION... Cumulus field has developed across much of the Rolling Plains this afternoon while the South Plains has remained relatively cloud free. This makes the forecast for storms a bit more complicated as none of the high-resolution models have any convection developing this afternoon but do have activity trying to push in from the northwest. Satellite loop shows storms have initiated in northeast new Mexico and are generally propagating southward. Models try to bring in some storms into the northwestern South Plains later tonight so confidence on how the convective environment will develop through the evening remains low. Once again, high cloud bases will mean the potential for gusty downburst/outflow winds and the potential for dry lightning. Models continue to try and bring a weak cold front into the Texas Panhandle Thursday stalling out well north of our forecast area. This may serve as a focus for storm development Thursday afternoon and help push storms into the area late in the day. Best chances look to be across the northern Rolling Plains where the frontal boundary will be closest to the forecast area. Coverage of precipitation will also depend on if convection tomorrow may help push the front further south which would give a larger portion of the forecast area a better chance of seeing storms. Unfortunately the boundary layer remains fairly dry and high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s will result in high cloud bases once again. This means the potential for strong outflow winds and dry lightning will continue. Ridge looks to build back over the area for the end of the weekend with the ECMWF stronger than the GFS. Highs will likely climb back to above the century mark for Sunday and Monday when the ridge is strongest. However, with the center of the ridge still west of us and northwesterly flow in place aloft, models may be overdoing high temperatures just a bit and we could see some isolated storms try to roll in from the northwest. Models have now returned to agreement of a stronger cold front arriving Monday night into Tuesday morning which would mean highs dropping back to around 90 with increased rain chances...IF this forecast verifies. Jordan && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 14/23