498 FXUS64 KMAF 220541 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1241 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2019 .DISCUSSION... && .AVIATION... VFR. S to SE wind may be a little gusty during the afternoon. Low possibility of thunderstorms across the area today... especially around CNM. && PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 229 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019/ DISCUSSION... There have been no significant changes to the previous forecast with weak upper ridging expected to remain over the region the next several days. At 2pm CDT, temperatures are 3-4 degrees cooler than this same time Tuesday. So, by the time we reach peak heating, temperature readings should be a couple degrees cooler than yesterday's highs. This is due to the recent shift of the mid level thermal ridge to the west and it should remain so through the remainder of the week with highs generally in the mid to upper 90s. Will still see some areas along the Pecos and Rio Grande river valleys reach 100 during this time. Otherwise, most areas will remain dry today then thunderstorm chances increase across areas west of the Pecos River Thursday and again Friday with weak disturbances possibly moving overhead. In addition, there could be some convection moving south through the TX Panhandle each night, potentially making it into northern portions of the forecast area. Confidence in this occurring is low attm so will keep rain chances low for the Permian Basin and southeastern New Mexico. The upper ridge then looks to strengthen this weekend and the mid- level thermal ridge begins to shift back to the east, resulting in decreased rain chances and warmer conditions. Sunday and Monday, we could see the return of record breaking high temperatures for much of the region. Beyond Monday, temperatures may cool a bit as 850mb temperatures cool with the potential approach of an upper trough from the east. In addition to cooler temperatures, this wave could bring showers and thunderstorms back to the area. At this time, models are not in agreement with the placement of the upper trough so will wait for better agreement before making too many changes to the rain chances in the extended. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 75 97 75 99 / 10 10 20 10 Carlsbad 71 98 72 100 / 20 10 20 10 Dryden 75 98 76 100 / 10 20 10 10 Fort Stockton 73 96 73 98 / 20 20 20 10 Guadalupe Pass 68 89 69 91 / 30 20 30 10 Hobbs 70 96 70 97 / 20 10 20 10 Marfa 63 88 63 89 / 30 40 30 20 Midland Intl Airport 74 97 74 99 / 10 10 20 10 Odessa 74 97 75 99 / 10 10 20 10 Wink 75 99 75 101 / 20 10 20 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...None. TX...None. && $$