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FXUS64 KLUB 211950
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
250 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Cumulus field has developed across much of the Rolling Plains this
afternoon while the South Plains has remained relatively cloud 
free. This makes the forecast for storms a bit more complicated as
none of the high-resolution models have any convection developing
this afternoon but do have activity trying to push in from the 
northwest. Satellite loop shows storms have initiated in northeast
new Mexico and are generally propagating southward. Models try to
bring in some storms into the northwestern South Plains later 
tonight so confidence on how the convective environment will 
develop through the evening remains low. Once again, high cloud 
bases will mean the potential for gusty downburst/outflow winds 
and the potential for dry lightning.

Models continue to try and bring a weak cold front into the Texas
Panhandle Thursday stalling out well north of our forecast area.
This may serve as a focus for storm development Thursday 
afternoon and help push storms into the area late in the day. 
Best chances look to be across the northern Rolling Plains where 
the frontal boundary will be closest to the forecast area. 
Coverage of precipitation will also depend on if convection 
tomorrow may help push the front further south which would give a 
larger portion of the forecast area a better chance of seeing 
storms. Unfortunately the boundary layer remains fairly dry and 
high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s will result in high 
cloud bases once again. This means the potential for strong 
outflow winds and dry lightning will continue.

Ridge looks to build back over the area for the end of the weekend
with the ECMWF stronger than the GFS. Highs will likely climb back
to above the century mark for Sunday and Monday when the ridge is
strongest. However, with the center of the ridge still west of us
and northwesterly flow in place aloft, models may be overdoing
high temperatures just a bit and we could see some isolated storms
try to roll in from the northwest. Models have now returned to
agreement of a stronger cold front arriving Monday night into
Tuesday morning which would mean highs dropping back to around 90
with increased rain chances...IF this forecast verifies.

Jordan

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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