240 FXUS62 KMHX 211506 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1106 AM EDT Wed Aug 21 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure offshore will extend west into Eastern North Carolina through mid week as a trough lingers well inland. A cold front will slowly approach the area late this week and move through the region this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 1100 AM Wednesday...Short wave evident in mdls and satellite across central NC is leading to decent cvrg of shra across the region. Based on this increased init pops thru early/mid aftn over most of the region. Also appears as this short wave passes E may see less cvrg inland later this aftn. Prev disc...No major changes to the current forecast as mid and high level clouds continue over the region. Some sprinkles earlier along the Crystal Coast have dissipated. Moist southwest flow coupled with some weak shortwave energy in the mid-levels today will lead to a decent coverage of showers and thunderstorms, especially during the later afternoon and evening hours. Using a consensus of some of the high-resolution models, would expect the best chance for convective initiation to again be the northern and western tier, mainly west of Highway 17 and north of Highway 264. Will have 40-50 percent PoPs in these areas, tapering to just a slight chance along the southern coast and southern Outer Banks. High temperatures today will be mostly within a degree or two of 90 degrees, except mid 80s Outer Banks. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/... As of 340 AM Wednesday...Coverage of showers and storms should diminish by late evening inland, but given the very moist airmass, will keep low rain chances near the immediate coast through the overnight hours. Very warm and humid once again tonight with lows in the mid to upper 70s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 AM Wed...High pressure will extend over the area Thursday with only scattered thunderstorms expected. A cold front will approach the area Friday, and then slowly cross through the forecast area over the weekend, leading to another period of unsettled weather which may continue into next week. Thursday and Friday...Lee trough over central NC will help kick off some showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon over the coastal plain, with the sea breeze possibly sparking some additional activity closer to the coast. Will keep chance PoPs through the evening inland, and then shift PoPs over the coast Thursday night as some offshore convection is expected to develop and may move over coastal areas overnight. A cold front will slowly move into the area Friday, and will act to trigger scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorm especially over the northern sections of the area. Have chance to likely PoPs for this region, with some heavy rain and training cells possible. High temps both days will reach the low 90s inland, and the mid to upper 80s along the coast. Low temps remain warm and muggy. Saturday and Sunday...Better agreement between model guidance has finally been reached, and it looks like the cold front will slowly drop through NC on Saturday, passing south of the region and off the southern NC coast by Saturday night. Have increased PoPs to likely at times over the weekend where the best coverage of precip is anticipated as the front moves south. Heavy rain and training of cells is possible and flooding may be an issue, especially considering the copious amounts of rain we have seen this past week. On the bright side, cooler temps are expected, with temps ranging from the low to upper 80s on Saturday...highest along the southern coast, where it will stay dry the longest. Then on Sunday, low 80s expected everywhere as cooler air moves in up in northern NC, and cloudy conditions limit highs over the southern tier. Low temps more seasonable, reaching the upper 60s to low/mid 70s. Monday and Tuesday...Model differences exist for the start of next week, with the GFS stalling the front and immediately bringing it back north on Monday leading to more rain chances, while the ECMWF keeps the front stalled and more less over the Gulf Stream, with high pressure building in from the north, keeping the area mostly dry. Will hedge towards a middle ground for now, and keep chance PoPs both Monday and Tuesday. Cooler temperatures will likely continue with highs only in the low to mid 80s, and low temps into the 60s and low 70s. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Short Term /through 12Z Thursday/... As of 720 AM Wednesday...Despite a very moist airmass, mid and high level clouds have help prevent much in the way of fog early this morning. Expect a similar setup tonight with sufficient debris cloudiness from daytime convection to preclude much of the morning fog. Afternoon diurnally-driven showers and thunderstorms will again be possible this afternoon. Long Term /Thursday through Sunday/... As of 315 AM Wed...Mostly VFR conditions expected through Friday morning, when scattered to more widespread convection develops as a cold front moves into the area. The front will slowly move south through the airspace this weekend, leading to some periods of extended low visibilities and ceilings with continued high chances for rain and thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Short Term /Today and Tonight/... As of 940 AM Wednesday..No changes with high pres offshore and trof to the W producing SSW winds 10 to 20 kts. Will cont to monitor for poss brief SCA late today into tonight Pamlico Sound and portion of coastal wtrs. Prev disc...Breezy SW winds of 15-20 knots being observed at daybreak over the Pamlico Sound and the northern waters, with 10-15 knot winds elsewhere. Seas are 2-3 feet with 10-11 second swell periods. With an approaching surface trough to the west and Bermuda high pressure lingering offshore, the gradient will tighten later today and into tonight. Current indication are for SW winds of 15-20 knots, with a few gusts to 25 knots. Latest NWPS/SWAN model indicates only a small and brief area of 6-foot seas, so will hold off on any SCA for now and let the dayshift re- evaluate based on later guidance. Long Term /Thursday through Sunday/... As of 320 AM Wed...Near Small Craft conditions will be possible from Thursday morning through early Saturday morning, with winds SW 15-20 and occasional wind gusts to 25 kts. Seas will be mostly 4-5 ft, but some periods of 6 ft seas are possible over the outer portions of the coastal waters. Will hold off on an advisory for now. Winds and seas then weaken slightly as a slow moving cold front enters the region. Winds will turn to the W at 10-15 kts Saturday morning, and then as the front slowly sinks south Saturday, winds will turn to the N/NE behind it, but turn to the S south of the front around 10 kts. Winds will then turn to the NE on Sunday for all waters and range from 10-15 kts over the northern waters to 5-10 kts over the southern waters. 3-5 ft seas will continue through Saturday morning, and then seas become 2-4 ft through Sunday. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...RF/CTC SHORT TERM...CTC LONG TERM...SGK AVIATION...CTC/SGK MARINE...RF/CTC/SGK