987 FXUS65 KBYZ 211459 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 859 AM MDT Wed Aug 21 2019 .UPDATE... No changes to inherited forecast this morning, with mainly quiet day on tap. Gilstad && .SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Thu... The ridge is going to continue through Wednesday allowing for another relatively quiet day across the forecast area. Easterly winds will be similar to yesterday bringing additional moisture into the area and winds up to 20 mph. Showers and thunderstorms will develop over the Beartooth/Bighorn Mountains, moving onto the foothills this afternoon as a weak shortwave moves over the area. Any storm that develops have the potential to be slow moving along with PWATs rising above 1.0 inch. Moving into Thursday, a cold front will drop down through central and western Montana. The front will be through Billings around noon which would limit the chance of thunderstorm activity along and west of Billings. Stronger storms are possible east of the front with higher instability, dewpoints and shear in the environment. Easterly winds up to 35 mph along this front are expected with winds shifting to the northwest behind the front. PWATs will increase to above 1.5 inches east of this front in far southeastern Montana. With torrential rainfall possible with these storms, a flash flood watch is possible at this time in far southeastern Montana. High temperatures will reach the mid 80s to low 90s. Low temperatures will range from the mid 50s to low 60s. Carrothers .LONG TERM...valid for Fri...Sat...Sun...Mon...Tue... Cooler temperatures and zonal flow will impact the forecast area through the extended forecast behind the cold front that continued to move through eastern Montana Thursday night. Shortwaves with weak energy will move over the area behind the front allowing for more widespread chance of showers between Friday and early Sunday. High temperatures will range from the upper 70s to lower 80s through Sunday with additional cooling into the low 70s expected for Monday and Tuesday. Carrothers && .AVIATION... A few lingering showers over far SE MT will gradually diminish through the morning. Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms will develop over the higher terrain and will drift into the adjacent plains through the evening hours. This activity should stay generally west of Rosebud county. These storms will be slow moving producing local IFR conditions with heavy rain and wind gusts to 40kts. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail into Thursday. Chambers/STP && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tdy Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 091 063/090 057/081 060/086 059/082 054/079 052/073 0/U 12/T 40/B 11/B 31/U 21/U 23/W LVM 091 055/084 050/082 053/085 050/080 047/078 044/074 1/U 14/T 40/B 11/E 31/U 21/U 22/W HDN 090 061/092 057/080 058/084 057/080 052/077 051/072 0/U 12/T 40/B 11/B 31/U 21/U 22/W MLS 088 063/090 058/078 060/083 058/077 052/074 050/070 0/U 04/T 71/U 21/B 32/W 21/U 23/W 4BQ 086 060/089 057/078 059/083 057/077 051/074 049/070 1/U 13/T 71/U 22/T 53/W 21/U 32/W BHK 083 058/084 057/077 057/080 055/076 049/073 047/068 0/U 02/T 71/B 23/T 43/W 22/W 23/W SHR 088 058/092 055/080 057/084 055/079 049/076 047/071 3/T 23/T 51/U 11/E 42/W 32/W 23/W && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings