331 
FXUS63 KFGF 210830
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
330 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

It is definitely a cool, fall-like morning across the FA. Will be
interesting to see how low temperatures fall by morning, as some
areas are already in the middle 40s. So far have not seen any fog,
but there may be some scattered around before sunrise. Winds will
remain from the north-northwest today, and cool will remain the
main word through the short term. Highs today should be similar or
a few degrees cooler than Tuesday. There were hardly any clouds
around on Tuesday. There is a weak short wave dropping southward
out of Canada that will mainly impact northwest Minnesota later
this afternoon into the evening. A pocket of cooler 500mb 
temperatures is associated with the wave, which will mainly result
in a bit more cloud cover across portions of northwest Minnesota 
later this afternoon into the early evening. With light winds and 
clear skies tonight, expect another chilly one. Dropped low 
temperatures a little, going closer to around 40 or so in the 
traditional cool spots like Langdon and Fosston.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

Winds will slowly turn around the southeast on Thursday. Once
again, abundant sunshine is expected, but highs will remain on the
cool side.

The upper ridge begins to move out with a trough approaching from 
the west on Friday. This trough will lead to a wet period from 
Friday night through Monday across the Northern Plains. This does 
not mean widespread nonstop rain, but there will be chances for rain 
each day during this period. High perceptible water across eastern 
North Dakota and northwest Minnesota in the 90th to 99th percentile 
in the NAEFS R-Climate and GEFS M-Climate means that there will be 
ample moisture present. These percentiles are currently at their 
highest on Saturday night into Sunday, which is when there will be 
the highest chance for heavy rain. This ample moisture combined with 
the synoptic lift from frontal boundaries tied to a surface low that 
is forecast to slowly move across the Canadian Prairies should lead 
to rain. Some instability also looks to be present in the afternoons 
and evenings so thunderstorms are also possible. Hard to say if 
there is much chance for any strong storms as there is not currently 
a strong shear signal and the instability across much of the region 
remains on the lower side.

Additional shortwaves will provide chances for more rain next week. 
These rain chances for next week are in multiple model guidances, 
but timing and QPF vary so details will come into focus as next week 
approaches. Temperatures in this period are generally below normal 
with highs in the 70s across eastern North Dakota and northwest 
Minnesota.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

VFR thru Tuesday morning. Issue will be some Cumulus development
over NW MN and far NE ND as cooler air aloft drops south behind a
500 mb low. This should result in Cumulus development late morning
thru the aftn NE 1/2 of the fcst area. BKN sky coverage in 
Roseau-Baudette areas and perhaps in BJI area though for now kept
it SCT. Cloud bases look to be VFR however in the 4-5k ft agl
range. Winds Tuesday north-northwest 8 to 15 kts. 

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...NC/Godon
AVIATION...Riddle