525 FXUS64 KMEG 210052 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 752 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019 .UPDATE...Evening Update. && .DISCUSSION... We have a very active radar this evening, but it looks worse than it is. The line of storms has become downdraft dominant as they moved into the Midsouth. So far we have seen gusts mostly in the 30-40 kt range, with the strongest wind ahead of the line of storms as the outflow rushes South. Wind should reach the Memphis Metro area by about 8 PM...likely in the 20-30 mph range. The additional ground moisture may result in at least patchy fog tonight. Temperatures behind the outflow boundary have cooled abruptly from the low to middle 90s into the lower 70s. Jonesboro is cooler now at 73 degrees then they were at Sunrise this morning at 76. Coverage and intensity of storms should continue to diminish over the next few hours. 30 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 603 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019/ Heat indices have climbed above 105 degrees across much of the area. Expect a repeat tomorrow as the upper ridge remains over the Southern Plains and dewpoints pool ahead of an approaching cold front. Highs will once again be in the mid 90s. Convection has developed along old outflow boundaries across Missouri and Illinois leftover from this mornings convection. Several of the CAM models show this convection pushing into Northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and West Tennessee between 5-7 PM and then dying out this evening along the I-40 corridor. Some storms could be strong to severe. Another round of convection is expected to occur tomorrow late afternoon and evening as almost a repeat scenario occurs as convection will develop along old outflow boundaries from whatever develops tonight near the front that is located near the Iowa/Missouri border. Increased chances for showers and thunderstorms will occur Thursday through the weekend as the cold front slowly moves into the area and stalls out. Don't think it will be a complete wash out during this time period, but just off and on periods of showers and thunderstorms. Will be able to pinpoint timing better once the time period gets within the range of the CAM models. Temperatures through this period will generally be in the mid to upper 80s due to convection and cloud cover. KRM .AVIATION...00Z TAFs Convective complex near MO Bootheel/far NW TN gradually shifting south over the next few hours this evening. Activity appears to be weakening at this moment somewhat but still expecting potential for VCTS/short term tempos for JBR/MKL 00-02Z, and MEM 01-03Z. Light S winds will veer N between 8-10 kts with the weak convective line, then become light S winds again for the remainder of the night. S winds will increase to 5-8 kts by Wednesday afternoon. Potential exists for some showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday afternoon but will only carry VCSH for now as confidence isn't high in this TAF set. Patchy fog may develop at MKL towards sunrise Wednesday. Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail outside of thunderstorms. CJC && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Wednesday for Clay-Craighead- Crittenden-Cross-Greene-Lee AR-Mississippi-Phillips- Poinsett-St. Francis. MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Wednesday for Dunklin-Pemiscot. MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Wednesday for Alcorn-Benton MS- Calhoun-Chickasaw-Coahoma-DeSoto-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lee MS- Marshall-Monroe-Panola-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman- Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Yalobusha. TN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Wednesday for Benton TN-Carroll- Chester-Crockett-Decatur-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Hardeman- Hardin-Haywood-Henderson-Henry-Lake-Lauderdale-Madison- McNairy-Obion-Shelby-Tipton-Weakley. && $$