042 FXUS63 KILX 202115 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 415 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 315 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019 Skies will partially clear early tonight behind today's thunderstorm complex, however an approaching cold front from the north will bring another chance of thunderstorms Wednesday, although the severe weather threat will be much lower. This front will be slow to exit the area, so showers and thunderstorms remain possible into Thursday or Friday. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019 A shortwave ridge will traverse central IL early tonight bringing dry conditions into the area, however a cold front settling southward into the area will allow another disturbance to track into the area from the central Plains early Wednesday bringing additional chances for thunderstorms as the day progresses. With a very moist and unstable air mass, SPC outlooks a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms, mainly with a wind threat. Temperatures will remain quite warm through Wednesday as central IL remains near to south of the front, so expect lows tonight of low 70s, and highs Wednesday of mid 80s along I-74 to upper 80s south of I-70. && .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019 The frontal boundary will slip south of the area Wednesday night, bringing a cooler and drier air mass, for highs only upper 70s to lower 80s Thursday through Saturday, gradually warming into the mid 80s by Monday and Tuesday. Chances for thunderstorms will also sink southward with the frontal boundary, so southern areas should see the higher chances through Friday. On Thursday, models depict another shortwave feature swinging through the base of the large scale trough over the area, resulting in PoPs from 30 percent in the north up to 70 percent south of I-70. Saturday looks to be the best chance for a dry day, as an upper level ridge crosses over Illinois. Following this ridge, another upper level trough and cold front heat toward Illinois from the northern Plains early in the work week for a return to thunderstorm chances. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 1258 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019 A thunderstorm squall line has passed through the central IL terminals, with a trailing widespread rain area with embedded thunderstorms continuing to affect the I-72 terminal KSPI, KDEC, and KCMI. Rain and thunderstorms should clear the area by 19-20Z with VFR conditions ensuing. Overnight, a cold front will approach from the north bringing MVFR cigs, and a chance for thunderstorms late in the period. At this point, chances for thunderstorms are too small for mention before 18Z. Some reduction to MVFR vsbys due to fog are possible as well from around 09-13Z. Winds W-SW as high as 15 kts with greater gusts until 19-20z, decreasing to light and variable after 00Z. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...37 SHORT TERM...37 LONG TERM...37 AVIATION...37