322 FXUS62 KTAE 201814 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 214 PM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019 .NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]... Convection initiating along the Gulf seabreeze as well as along a surface trough through AL and GA will continue moving northward through the remainder of the afternoon. The greatest chance for slower moving storms and the possibility of isolated flooding issues would be in AL and GA where steering currents are converging. As is typical in the summertime, land-based storms should come to an end within a few hours of sunset and then transition to offshore late in the night. .SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]... In the mid to upper levels, the western extension of the Bermuda ridge will gradually build further westward and extend across the GOMEX. The surface ridge axis will remain over or just south of our CWA. While the upper level ridging will bring warmer temperatures and somewhat drier conditions to our area by Thursday, there will continue to be ample moisture for diurnal convection just not as widespread and heavy as we've seen the past several days. Highs will be in the low 90s and lows will be in the low 70s. .LONG TERM [Friday Through Tuesday]... Not much change in the overall pattern surface and aloft through the extended period. Both the EURO and GFS do hint at possibly a weak surface low approaching and moving inland over the central Gulf coast around southeast LA over the weekend. The models then spread the moisture associated with this feature eastward which would bring increasing rain chances beginning on Sunday. Highs will be around 90 to the lower 90 with lows in the low 90s and lows to mid 70s. && .AVIATION... [Through 18Z Wednesday] VFR conditions are expected through the TAF. The only exception would be in a shower or storm this afternoon and would be most likely at ABY or DHN. && .MARINE... Winds and seas will remain low through the period outside of thunderstorms, which will peak in the late night and early morning hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next several days. && .HYDROLOGY... A more typical threat of scattered summertime storms is expected over the next week, with any sort of widespread flood threat diminishing. However, both the Econfina and Steinhatchee rivers remain in flood from the last week of heavy rain. The silver lining is that both are cresting or have already crested, with a gradual lowering of water levels over the next few days. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 73 93 73 92 72 / 20 40 20 30 20 Panama City 76 89 76 88 75 / 10 40 20 30 20 Dothan 71 92 72 91 72 / 20 40 20 50 20 Albany 73 92 73 92 74 / 20 40 20 40 20 Valdosta 72 91 73 92 71 / 50 40 20 30 20 Cross City 73 90 73 91 74 / 50 30 20 30 20 Apalachicola 76 88 77 87 76 / 20 30 20 30 20 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight for Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Harrigan SHORT TERM...Barry LONG TERM...Barry AVIATION...Harrigan MARINE...Barry FIRE WEATHER...Harrigan HYDROLOGY...Harrigan