656 FXUS63 KDLH 201204 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 704 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 703 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019 Updated for the 06Z Aviation discussion. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 313 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019 The Northland was dry early this morning under an exiting area of low level shortwave ridging. However, a cold front was upstream over the central/eastern Dakotas with increasing warm air and moisture advection into northern Minnesota. MUCAPE has been on the increase over northern Minnesota with values of 1000-1500 J/KG over our western CWA. Deep layer shear supports strong to severe storms. Area radars/satellite show storms were increasing in intensity from eastern North Dakota into southeast Manitoba and adjacent northwest Ontario in response to an increasing low level jet. We expect storms to increase this morning from west to east with some strong to severe storms possible with a hail/wind threat. The CAMs are in decent agreement moving a broken line of storms through much of northern Minnesota and far northwest Wisconsin through the morning with it decreasing some during the early afternoon hours. We expect some additional development this afternoon ahead of the cold front which will be in eastern Minnesota at 18Z. Given adequate instability will be in place along with 30-45 knots of deep layer shear, some strong to severe storms will be possible. The CAMs are not too impressive though and only show limited redevelopment this afternoon over eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. Showers/storms will exit northwest Wisconsin this evening with dry conditions overnight along with fog. It will be a cool night with lows from 40 to 45 over far northern Minnesota and upper forties to lower fifties elsewhere. High pressure will build in on Wednesday with highs from the upper sixties to mid seventies. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 313 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019 Quiet conditions to begin the long term as a surface high over the Canadian Prairies spreads across the Upper Midwest through Friday. Temperatures will be on the cooler side with cool, dry air being advected in from Canada. As the high shifts eastward out of the region on Friday, south-southwesterly flow begins to develop advecting warm, moist air to the Northern Plains. An active pattern then dominates through the beginning of next week. Multiple shortwaves are shown by all guidance pushing rounds of showers and storms this weekend into Monday for the region. The first wave is not looking as strong as previous runs with weakening upper level support causing most the boundary to stall just to west of the CWA boundary. This could potentially delay the start of the next batch of precipitation until Saturday night. Temperatures warm back to seasonable with highs in the 70s and lows in the upper 40s/50s. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning) Issued at 703 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019 Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front spread eastward affecting all TAF sites this morning into afternoon. Brief IFR/LIFR conditions with gusty winds will be possible with the heavier thunderstorms though expect mainly MVFR ceilings and visibilities. Storms end west to east through the day. After the frontal passage this afternoon, ceilings begin to lift to VFR and some breezy north- northwest winds develop. && .MARINE... Issued at 313 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019 A cold front will move through the day which will bring showers and thunderstorms along with a wind shift to the northwest at 6 to 12 knots. A few of the thunderstorms may be strong, to near severe, with gusty winds, hail, heavy rain and frequent lightning. Northwest winds will then continue on Wednesday at 6 to 12 knots with a few gusts to around 15 knots. Waves will be 2 feet or less through the period outside of any thunderstorms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 78 49 72 47 / 70 0 0 0 INL 72 43 67 45 / 70 0 0 0 BRD 78 49 73 48 / 80 0 0 0 HYR 79 48 73 47 / 60 20 0 0 ASX 81 53 74 50 / 50 20 0 0 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. LS...None. && $$ UPDATE...KC SHORT TERM...Melde LONG TERM...KC AVIATION...KC MARINE...KC