097 FXUS63 KICT 200448 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1148 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 346 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019 A heat advisory remains in place over most of the area. An Excessive Heat Warning has been issued for portions of southeast KS. A strong ridge of high pressure will stick around for one more day across the Central Plains before it begins breaking down late tomorrow night. Southerly flow at the surface will continue to advect upper 70s dew points into the region tomorrow. A slight increase in 1000-850 thickness values near the 1460-1470m mark will support temperatures in the upper 90s to 100 for much of the area. Thus heat indices are expected rise to the 105-110 range across much of the area. Increased confidence across portions of southeast KS for heat indices meeting or exceeding 110 has prompted the Excessive Heat Warning. A strong trough is progged to begin its swing down from Manitoba through the Great Lakes Region Wednesday which will help push a sagging weak cold front into the region Wednesday and bring some relief to the high temperatures, with highs around 90. A mid level shortwave will also move through the area Wednesday which will support chances for scattered showers and storms throughout the day. Chances for showers and storms will increase overnight Wednesday into Thursday as strong 850-700mb warm advection persists through the overnight hours. Scattered showers will likely linger through the day Thursday with highs held to the low to mid 80s. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday) Issued at 346 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019 Chances for isolated to scattered showers and storms will continue throughout the weekend with weak northwesterly flow progged over the area with subtle shortwaves likely moving over the region. There remains some model disagreements as to the timing of any precip but will be refined with further issuances. Expect weekend temperatures to be near seasonable normals, in the mid to upper 80s. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) Issued at 1140 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019 VFR flight conditions are expected at all area airports for the rest of tonight and most of the day tomorrow. Late evening satellite imagery and surface observations reveal just a few upper level cirrus clouds traversing the area. All convection this evening has remained well to the north and west of the area, and this will be the case for the remainder of the night. Southerly surface flow will persist throughout the period. By the evening hours tomorrow (after 00z), cloud cover and shower/thunderstorm chances (and thus lower cigs and reduced visibility) begin to increase in central Kansas, particularly in the vicinity of KRSL and KGBD. Otherwise, minimal aviation concerns are expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 76 99 75 90 / 0 10 20 30 Hutchinson 75 100 73 90 / 10 10 30 30 Newton 75 98 72 90 / 0 10 30 40 ElDorado 76 98 73 90 / 0 10 20 40 Winfield-KWLD 76 98 75 91 / 10 10 20 30 Russell 73 101 70 90 / 10 10 40 40 Great Bend 74 101 70 90 / 10 10 40 30 Salina 76 101 72 90 / 10 10 40 50 McPherson 75 99 72 90 / 10 10 40 40 Coffeyville 76 96 75 92 / 0 0 10 30 Chanute 75 95 73 90 / 0 10 20 40 Iola 75 95 73 90 / 10 10 20 40 Parsons-KPPF 75 95 74 90 / 0 10 20 30 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ098>100. Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ033-048>053-067>072- 082-083-091>096. && $$ SHORT TERM...KMB LONG TERM...KMB AVIATION...TAV