539 FXUS62 KMHX 191749 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 149 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure offshore will extend west into Eastern North Carolina through mid week as a weak trough of low pressure lingers well inland. A cold front will slowly approach the area late this week and then cross the area next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 1115 AM Monday...Very humid low level airmass has prompted the development of a scattered to broken cumulus field across the area late this morning. Visual analysis reveals towering cu development along the sea breeze front along the Crystal Coast and Onslow County, which should overcome some drier mid-level air (apparent on the 12Z KMHX sounding) to initiate isolated storms over the next hour or so. Coverage will increase to scattered this afternoon along and ahead of the sea breeze as the convective temp is reached, with greatest coverage mainly from the Highway 17 corridor westward. Rain chances at the beaches should remain very slim today. High temperatures today will be 90-93 degrees in most areas except upper 80s Outer Banks. Apparent temperature values will range from 100-104 degrees at peak heating this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/... As of 330 AM Monday...Any convection should end quickly this evening with loss of heating leaving a generally partly to mostly clear sky. Another warm muggy late August night with lows mainly in the mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 245 AM Mon...High pressure will extend over the are through Thursday with only scattered thunderstorms expected. Then, a slow moving cold front will approach from the north late in the week, and should eventually cross the area this weekend, which would lead to another period of unsettled weather. Tuesday through Thursday...Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected Tuesday through Thursday with a weak lee trough forming over central NC, and continued possible convective initiation along the sea breeze each day. Very little wind shear will keep convection disorganized. High temps will be slightly above average through this period, with readings in the low 90s inland and the mid to upper 80s along the coast. Warm and humid nights will continue. Friday through Sunday...The base of an upper level trough will swing into the southern Appalachians Friday, as a cold front drops south through Virginia. Precip chances will be increasing Friday as storms fire along and south of the front in a hot and humid airmass. Thereafter guidance diverges, with the latest run of the GFS aggressively pushing the front south of the region on Friday before stalling (and then pushing back north late in the weekend), whereas the latest ECMWF develops an area of low pressure along the front Friday in southern VA which halts the progression of the front southward until later in the weekend when the front moves eastward through the area. Will keep generally 40-50% PoPs for Friday and the weekend, and hope for some better model consensus in the next cycle. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Short Term /through 12Z Tuesday/... As of 140 PM Monday...High res models are suggesting more coverage with scattered thunderstorms this afternoon, which have begun to show up on radar. Any storms would produce brief sub- VFR conditions. Convective activity will diminish after sunset. Overnight fog is once again possible early Wed morning, given the similar airmass. Long Term /Monday night through Friday/... As of 255 AM Mon...Mostly VFR conditions this week, with scattered convection expected during the afternoons and evenings. Patchy fog also possible in the early mornings with high dewpoints and rather light winds. && .MARINE... Short Term /Today and Tonight/... As of 710 AM Monday...No major changes needed to current marine forecast as SW winds continue at 5-15 knots with seas 2-4 feet. High pressure offshore with weak troughing well inland, and stronger low pressure well east of the mid-Atlantic moving away will continue to more SW winds at 5-15 knots with seas 2-4 feet today and tonight. Long Term /Tuesday through Friday/... As of 255 AM Mon...Decent boating conditions are expected for most of the upcoming week. Winds will be mostly SW 10-15 through Wednesday afternoon, before increasing to SSW 15-20 kts Wednesday evening through Friday morning. Seas will be 2-4 ft through Wednesday, and then increase to 3-5 ft early Wednesday night. Conditions Wednesday night through Thursday night will likely be close to Small Craft over most of the coastal waters, with wind gusts near 25 kts and seas around 5 feet. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...CB SHORT TERM...CTC LONG TERM...SGK AVIATION...SGK/ML MARINE...CTC/SGK