947 
FXUS64 KLUB 191128
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
628 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019

.AVIATION...
Upper level high pressure building overhead will shove moisture
and thunderstorm chances mainly to the west and northwest of TAF 
sites later today. VFR with light south to southwest low level 
flow will dominate. RMcQueen

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 253 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019/ 

DISCUSSION...
The persistent upper level ridge will take on a more amplified
look today. The ridge at 250mb will continue to move to the west
across northern Mexico. The 500mb ridge will follow in the
upcoming days as well. For today, surface troughing will be 
positioned in eastern New Mexico bending northeastward into the 
Texas Panhandle. The greatest chance of thunderstorm development 
is in this surface trough as has been the case the past several 
days. Most CAMs develop convection within this surface trough. 
There will not likely be a lot of difference in storm 
characteristics than seen in the past few days. Thunderstorms will
be high based in a deeply mixed and hot low level atmosphere. Low
shear will lead to little organization of convection with 
possible severe downdraft winds. Thickness values are down about
25m from yesterday so temperatures will be a few degrees cooler
although still well above seasonal averages. The entire
southwestern US will be under weak heights aloft for the rest of
the week. This will lead to daily thunderstorm chances in the
afternoon and evening especially in the Texas Panhandle into the
northwestern South Plains. Also, thicknesses will be on a downward
trend gradually lowering temperatures each day.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/05