449 FXUS65 KTFX 181736 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1136 AM MDT Sun Aug 18 2019 ...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION... .UPDATE... Little needing updating this morning. Satellite trends showing some fog in the Missouri Breaks area. This fog should diminish by late morning. Otherwise the remainder of today will be mainly sunny with temperatures warming to near normal values. Some breezy winds and low RH values will be found this afternoon. This could bring some elevated fire danger, especially across the southwest as recent rains should help across the central and north. All should be mindful of any errant sparks that may lead to new fire starts and follow all local burn restrictions during this warm and dry period. Anglin && .SYNOPSIS... Lingering mid and high clouds will depart or dissipate today as a broad ridge of high pressure builds into the Northern Rockies. This ridge is forecast to remain in place and strengthen through mid-week, allowing for dry weather and a warming trend. && .AVIATION... Updated 1200 PM MDT Sun Aug 17 2019 (18Z TAFs) VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Westerly winds will becoming a bit breezy for the usual areas this afternoon and evening, then diminish tonight. More breezy west winds could then return for Monday. Otherwise expect mainly clear skies and dry conditions for the next 24 hours. Anglin && .FIRE WEATHER... A warming and drying trend begins today with warmer than avg temperatures and lower humidity persisting through much of the upcoming week under a building upper ridge. Weak disturbances moving through the ridge will bring periods of breezy winds late Sun and again Mon, mostly to north-central MT. There will be a slight chance of isolated t-storm development over SW MT Mon and Tue, some of which could be low precip. Potential exists for a dry front passage late Wednesday or Thursday as the upper level ridge weakens. Warmer/drier and breezy conditions will accelerate the drying of fuels this week with increasing fire weather concerns expected by Wednesday and Thursday. -Hoenisch/Kredensor && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM MDT Sun Aug 18 2019/ Today through Tuesday...A shift to a warmer and more arid pattern will begin today as a broad upper level ridge of high pressure builds into the Rockies. Temperatures across the CWA will be near to a bit above normal as the ridge amplifies toward mid-week. Disturbances moving through the ridge may cause some gusty winds this afternoon and Monday afternoon. They may also be accompanied by some mid-level moisture, which could lead to a few high-based and potentially 'dry' thunderstorms over SW MT into the central mountains, particularly Mon & Tue afternoon and evening. Wednesday through next Sunday...The ridge amplitude appears to peak on Wed, which should be the warmest day of the week for most locations. Highs are expected to reach 5 to 10 degrees above normal on Wednesday. The ridge then flattens and gives way to a westerly flow in the mid and upper levels for the remainder of the week. An upper trough passing across the northern Rockies and western Canada Wed night or Thu will bring a frontal passage, but at this time moisture appears limited and any notable PoPs were kept out of the forecast. High temps are forecast to gradually drop back to near normal levels by the weekend. -Kredensor && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 83 52 86 51 / 0 0 0 0 CTB 79 49 80 47 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 84 51 88 52 / 0 0 10 10 BZN 84 48 91 49 / 0 0 0 10 WEY 76 39 84 41 / 0 0 0 10 DLN 83 48 87 48 / 0 0 0 10 HVR 83 52 86 51 / 0 0 0 0 LWT 79 51 85 50 / 0 0 0 10 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls