076 
FXUS64 KMEG 172322
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
622 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019

.UPDATE...Aviation Discussion. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 244 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019/ 

Clear to mostly sunny skies across the region today with the 
northeast counties seeing the greatest change in temperatures and 
humidity from this time yesterday. This hour most heat indices 
were ranging from the upper 90s...to right at 105F in Clarksdale, 
Mississippi. Winds were either calm or light from a westerly 
component. Current radar was showing no echoes.

For tonight and Sunday...not much change expected with the 
ongoing forecast. Short term models show another complex of storms
developing overnight in the Central Plains and moving southeast 
into southern Missouri by sunrise. A stray shower isn't out of the
question in the northwest counties. Most of the Midsouth will 
remain mostly clear with light winds tonight...with lows generally
in the 70-75F range. Highs tomorrow will top out in the low and 
mid 90s...with heat indices flirting with 105F along and west of 
the Mississippi River. A heat advisory may be needed. This is also
where an isolated shower or storm will be possible as slightly 
stronger low level shear moves up the Delta during the afternoon 
hours. Questions begin to arise for convective chances tomorrow 
night. The 12z GFS run showing a complex of storms initiating 
along an outflow boundary in southern Missouri and scouring out 
the airmass in our region during the night. The NAM and Euro not 
anywhere near as bullish...so kept only a slight chance across the
far north for now. Lows will remain in the 70-75F range Sunday.

Monday through Thursday...upper heights will slightly build 
eastward over the area early in the period as a upper high center
shifts into Oklahoma. This should trigger more mid 90 degree 
highs and more widespread dewpoints in the mid 70s. As a result 
heat advisories are anticipated. Only caveat will be convection in
the afternoon and early evening hours which would provide heat 
relief but frustrate the timing of any advisory. By Wednesday...a
stronger shortwave will begin to lower upper heights in the Great
Lakes and Midwest...prompting a descending cold front to reach 
the Lower Ohio Valley late in the day. The latest Euro though is 
slower with this push happening Thursday. Have taken a blend of 
both models...keeping temperatures a tad warmer both days and 
bumping up rain chances in the Wednesday night time frame.

Beginning of next weekend...rain chances will continue...especially
along the aforementioned decaying front across the southern and 
western counties where stronger shear may evolve from a weak
surface wave forming in northeast Oklahoma. Temperatures this 
period will be close to seasonal averages.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAF Set

VFR conditions should prevail through the next 24+ hours at all
sites. Light winds, generally from the South. 

30

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$