913 FXUS64 KMAF 171700 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1200 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019 .DISCUSSION... See 18Z Aviation Discussion below. && .AVIATION... Return flow will dominate this afternoon, followed by a weak LLJ after sunset, then lighter return flow Sunday. Cu fields will have bases 9-12 kft AGL this afternoon, and 5-7 kft AGL Sunday. Convection looks isolated this afternoon, and may affect KFST. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 622 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019/ DISCUSSION... See 12z aviation discussion below. AVIATION... VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. There is a slight chance of TSRA for FST this afternoon but chances are too small to put in the TAF at this time. Winds will generally be out of the south to southwest with gusts at MAF beginning around 15z. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 350 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019/ DISCUSSION... Broad upper ridge extending coast to coast across the southern tier of states this morning. This ridge becomes centered over S TX this afternoon with some models shifting the center more over the region Sunday. The center of the ridge is expected to slowly drift west early next week with a long wave trough moving across the country late in the week. Area locations warmed yesterday 3 to 7 degrees over the previous day. Will start off the day unusually warm as temperatures very slow to cool... still have temps into the 80s as of 08z with a 90 degree reading at Castolon. Some models show warming 850mb temps today... some keep them the same. The mesonets at Colorado City... Gail... and Snyder as well as the RAWS at Rio Grande Village reached heat advisory levels Friday. Expect similar if not a degree or so warmer conditions today so will go ahead and issue a Heat Advisory for those locations this afternoon as well as a Special Weather Statement about the heat for the rest of the area. Have gone a little above guidance today. Some guidance keeps temps the same Sunday while others warm it several degrees. At the moment planning on keeping very similar highs in the forecast for Sunday and see how today plays out. Much of the Permian Basin sitting just below heat advisory criteria so depending on how today goes may need another perhaps larger heat advisory for Sunday too. Temperatures are expected to slowly begin to decrease Monday. With all this heat and decent low level moisture there will be a chance of thunderstorms mainly south of the Pecos river over and near the higher elevations today and Sunday. There will be a low possibility of storms each day favoring the mountains but some chances spread onto the plains the middle of next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 76 104 77 103 / 10 0 0 0 Carlsbad 72 104 74 103 / 10 0 10 10 Dryden 78 106 78 102 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 76 103 77 101 / 10 10 10 0 Guadalupe Pass 70 97 73 95 / 10 0 10 10 Hobbs 72 103 73 101 / 10 10 10 10 Marfa 65 95 66 96 / 20 20 20 20 Midland Intl Airport 77 104 78 102 / 10 10 0 0 Odessa 78 104 77 102 / 10 10 0 0 Wink 76 107 77 105 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...None. TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Borden-Lower Brewster County-Mitchell-Scurry. && $$ 44/84/44